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Cleveland Browns vsJacksonville Jaguars Prediction

The Cleveland Browns are a solid favorite with a 65% chance to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. Nick Chubb is projected for 77 rushing yards and a 52% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 34% of simulations where Jacksonville Jaguars wins, Mike Glennon averages 2.11 TD passes vs 0.5 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.59 TDs to 0.92 interceptions. James Robinson averages 107 rushing yards and 1.17 rushing TDs when Jacksonville Jaguars wins and 70 yards and 0.61 TDs in losses. The Cleveland Browns has a 78% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 74% of the time.

Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction

The Cleveland Browns continue their push to end a nearly two-decade-long playoff drought when they visit the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 EST on Sunday, November 29, at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. Early in the week, Cleveland is a seven-point road favorite with the over/under set at 48.5 points. Let’s take an in-depth look at both teams as we try to figure out the best Jaguars vs Browns prediction against the spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars Preview

After looking good for a couple of weeks and losing a pair of close games, the Jaguars rounded back into form last week, looking the part of one of the NFL’s worst teams. A 27-3 home defeat against the unbeaten Steelers was Jacksonville’s ninth straight loss. At this point, only the Jets are preventing the Jags from fulfilling their destiny to get the top overall pick in next year’s draft. The Jaguars have just one game left against a team that currently has a losing record, so it’s not getting much easier.

At the moment, Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone is stumped on his team’s starting quarterback in Week 12. Garner Minshew is getting closer to returning from injury. But if he’s not ready, it looks like a tossup between rookie Jake Luton and Mike Glennon. Luton has started the last three games but was nearly benched last week against the Steelers. Despite scoring just three points against Pittsburgh, running back James Robinson remains a bright spot for the Jacksonville offense. He’s averaging 100 yards rushing over his last four games, which would serve the Jags well if they find some clarity at the quarterback position.

Defensively, things continue to be a struggle for the young Jaguars. Despite a solid showing against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers a couple of weeks ago, they had few answers for Pittsburgh’s offense in Week 11. To date, the Jags are allowing 29.8 points per game and have totaled just nine sacks in 11 games. A slew of injuries to key players isn’t helping either.

Cleveland Browns Preview

Over the last month, the Browns have looked the part of a genuine playoff contender in the AFC. Cleveland took care of business against the Eagles last week, giving the Browns their third win in their last four games. While erasing Pittsburgh’s three-game lead in the AFC North is unlikely, the Browns are at the top of the crowded wild-card standings in the AFC. If they can take care of business against the weaker teams left on their schedule, the Browns are in a good position to make the playoffs.

It’s not hard to see that the return of Nick Chubb from injury two weeks ago has made a huge difference for Cleveland. He’s rushed for 240 yards in his two games back and is now averaging six yards per carry on the season. Between Chubb and Kareem Hunt, opposing defenses have to be fearful of Cleveland’s rushing attack. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield remains a wild card. The good news is he’s gone three straight games without an interception. The bad news is Mayfield has also failed to throw a touchdown pass in those three games. Needless to say, the Browns need more out of him, although he doesn’t need to do much if Cleveland continues to run the ball effectively.

On the other side of the ball, the Cleveland defense is starting to make some waves. The Browns have allowed 17 points or less in three straight games. The caveat is that all three games have been at home, so the Cleveland weather has aided the play of the defense to some extent. However, the Browns deserve a lot of credit for getting five sacks last week against Philadelphia without Myles Garrett, who is also likely to miss Sunday’s game in Jacksonville.

Full Game Prediction

Unless the Jaguars can find a way to slow down Cleveland’s rushing attack, their path to victory appears quite narrow. Between their defensive struggles and their uncertain quarterback situation, there’s not much that favors Jacksonville in this matchup. That being said, there’s no telling what could happen if the Jags find a way to force Mayfield to beat them.

Before you go anywhere, make sure you sign up for a BetQL subscription, which will give you access to key stats and betting trends for this matchup. You will also be able to see our model’s Browns vs Jaguars prediction against the spread.

Bryan Zarpentine
Prediction Written by
Bryan Zarpentine

Bryan Zarpentine is a freelance writer and editor who specializes in sports and sports betting. Over the years, he has covered the NFL, MLB, college football, college basketball, and international and club soccer. Bryan is a graduate of Syracuse University and a lifelong fan of the Orange, as well as the New York Mets, Denver Broncos, and Tottenham Hotspur. When he’s not watching sports, there’s nothing he loves more than writing about sports, especially taking on unpopular opinions.

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