New England Patriots vsHouston Texans Prediction
Expect a close game with the New England Patriots winning 50% of simulations, and the Houston Texans 50% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The New England Patriots commit fewer turnovers in 28% of simulations and they go on to win 77% when they take care of the ball. The Houston Texans wins 61% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Cam Newton is averaging 307 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (31% chance) then he helps his team win 57%. Deshaun Watson is averaging 286 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (36% chance) then he helps his team win 58%.
New England Patriots vs Houston Texans Prediction
After keeping their playoff hopes alive with a huge win last week, the New England Patriots hit the road in Week 11 to take on the Houston Texans. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST on Sunday, November 22, at NRG Stadium in Houston. The early betting line has the Patriots favored by 2.5 points on the road with the over/under set at 48 points. Keep reading to check out a preview of both teams and find out our model’s Texans vs Patriots prediction.
New England Patriots Preview
Just when people were starting to count out Bill Belichick, the Patriots come up with a huge win over the Ravens. Last week’s win was New England’s second in a row, helping to stabilize the Pats after a four-game losing streak. The caveat is that New England is still just 4-5 and two games behind the Bills in the loss column. If the Patriots want to keep their streak of division titles intact, they need to keep the wins coming.
There have been some signs of life from the New England offense in recent weeks, specifically with the running game. Damien Harris is averaging 98 yards per game on the ground in his last three games. That’s been a big help for Cam Newton, who is not exactly lighting it up through the air right now but remains a running threat himself. However, there is also a glimmer of hope for the New England passing game with the emergence of Jakobi Myers in recent weeks. The New England offense still isn’t that pretty to watch, but the Pats are slowly piecing things together.
On the other side of the ball, the New England defense is showing that it’s capable of playing well, even if the Patriots remain inconsistent. One week after getting lit up by Joe Flacco, the Patriots were able to handle Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, albeit in a downpour. The New England defense is lacking game-changers, but with the right scheme, the Patriots can hold their own and at least give their offense a fighting chance.
Houston Texans Preview
At 2-7, Houston’s season is all but over. The Texans would have to more or less win the rest of their games to have any hope of reaching the playoffs. At this point in the season, they’ve lost every game that wasn’t against the Jaguars. If it matters, four of their seven losses have come by one score, including a few close losses against teams that will probably play in the playoffs. However, 2020 is becoming a lost year for the Texans.
The ironic part of Houston’s failures this season is that Deshaun Watson is still having a standout campaign. Last week’s windy day in Cleveland aside, Watson has been outstanding this season, as he’s on pace for over 4,500 passing yards and over 30 touchdowns. However, he’s been forced to do it with a subpar offensive line that has made life difficult. The Texans are also without leading rusher David Johnson, who has been placed on IR.
Houston’s biggest problem this year has been the play of the defense. Again, they benefited from playing the Browns under blustery conditions last week. But prior to that, the Texans had conceded at least 25 points in all but one game this season. Even when they knew that the Browns were going to run the ball a majority of the time, the Houston defense gave up 231 yards on the ground and over five yards per carry. The Texans have been shredded on the ground time after time this year with little hope for fixing those issues.
Full Game Prediction
All eyes will be on the New England defense this week. The Pats haven’t exactly proven that they have the kind of pass rush that can take advantage of a porous Houston offensive line. That could make it difficult to contain Watson and the Houston passing attack. Of course, the Patriots should feel confident about their chances of doing some damage against the Houston defense.
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