Minnesota Vikings vsHouston Texans Prediction
Expect a close game with the Minnesota Vikings winning 45% of simulations, and the Houston Texans 54% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Minnesota Vikings commit fewer turnovers in 46% of simulations and they go on to win 64% when they take care of the ball. The Houston Texans wins 70% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Kirk Cousins is averaging 270 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (41% chance) then he helps his team win 49%. Deshaun Watson is averaging 281 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (42% chance) then he helps his team win 57%.
Houston Texans Preview
Two of the most surprising 0-3 teams in the NFL will fight for a win when the Minnesota Vikings take on the Houston Texans. Kickoff is at 1:00 EST on Sunday, October 4, at NRG Stadium in Houston. The Texans are 4.5-point favorites at home with an over/under of 54.5 points. Keep reading to take a closer look at where both teams stand heading into the game and find out our Texans vs Vikings prediction.
The Texans may be undefeated, but they certainly have a good excuse. Houston’s schedule included the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers over the first three weeks of the season. Those three teams are a combined 8-1 with the Chiefs beating the Ravens last week. Of course, no matter who the Texans played, they are still winless and three behind the Titans inside the AFC South.
Even with a difficult schedule, the Houston offense has been a little more sluggish than expected. The Texans have scored 21 points or less in each of their three games. The primary reason for that has been Houston’s continued problems on the offensive line. Deshaun Watson has already been sacked 13 times, which has made it difficult for him to push the ball down the field. At the same time, the Texans are averaging a modest 3.7 yards per carry on the ground, as the offensive line is holding them back in more ways than one.
To be fair, it’s still hard to judge the Houston defense too harshly given their schedule. It’s tough to blame the Texans for giving up 34 points to the Chiefs or 33 points to the Ravens. Even conceding 28 points to the Steelers last week isn’t the worst thing in the world. However, unless the Texans can get more out of their offense, they’re going to need the defense to step up and pull a little more weight.
Minnesota Vikings Preview
As for the Vikings, they have fewer excuses than Houston for starting the year 0-3. They also haven’t done the Texans any favors by losing to two of Houston’s AFC South rivals the past two weeks. For what it’s worth, the Vikings bounced back from a dreadful Week 2 loss to Indianapolis and were in a position to beat the Titans last week. But the Minnesota defense gave up two late field goals in a 31-30 loss.
Once again, Kirk Cousins has become a scapegoat for Minnesota’s problems, although deservedly so. Cousins has thrown six interceptions in three games, helping to offset his five touchdown passes. His accuracy his also down considerably from his career average. The good news is that Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison have been excellent running the ball while Justin Jefferson had a monster game last week as the Vikings look for a replacement for Stefon Diggs.
However, the Minnesota defense has been one of the worst in the NFL, giving up 34 points per game after three weeks. Outside of facing the Packers in Week 1, the Vikings haven’t played offenses that should be running circles against them, but that’s what’s happening. With little pressure from the defensive line, the Minnesota secondary has been left vulnerable all season.
Full Game Prediction
Obviously, something has to give with these two teams. It’ll be interesting to see what team gets the edge between a porous Houston offensive line and a sluggish Minnesota defensive line. The Texans need to win that battle and start creating explosive plays in the passing game. If they don’t, Minnesota’s rushing attack could seize control of the game with Cook and Mattison.
Of course, you’ll want to sign up for a BetQL subscription so you can take an in-depth look at this matchup and find out our model’s Vikings vs Texans prediction.