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Chicago Bears vsGreen Bay Packers Prediction

The Green Bay Packers are a heavy favorite winning 78% of simulations over the Chicago Bears. Aaron Rodgers is averaging 265 passing yards and 2.3 TDs per simulation and Aaron Jones is projected for 88 rushing yards and a 63% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 22% of simulations where Chicago Bears wins, Mitch Trubisky averages 1.81 TD passes vs 0.42 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.23 TDs to 0.8 interceptions. David Montgomery averages 82 rushing yards and 0.84 rushing TDs when Chicago Bears wins and 48 yards and 0.32 TDs in losses. Green Bay Packers has a 78% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 85% of the time.

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Prediction

The Chicago Bears (5-5) travel to Lambeau Field for a divisional clash with the NFC North-leading Green Bay Packers (7-3) on Sunday Night Football. The Packers are massive -8.5 favorites, and the over/under currently sits at 45 total points.

The Packers have cruised through all sorts of roadblocks this season, only suffering a couple flat tires along the way. Veteran QB Aaron Rodgers has been in vintage form, looking like a man seriously capable of bringing home his second career MVP trophy. Even better, he finally has a fully healthy array of offensive weapons at his disposal. Meanwhile, the Bears have gone into complete engine failure, no longer able to ride out games solely on the strength of their elite defense. This could be a doozy of a game, but it’s bound to be entertaining regardless.

Green Bay Packers Preview

Aaron Rodgers and his offense continue to thrive under second-year Packers coach Matt LaFleur. They rank third in the league in points per game (30.8), turnovers per game (0.9), and average yards per drive (37.1). Rodgers has the second-most passing touchdowns (29) in the NFL, and he has the fourth-fewest interceptions (four) among qualified QBs. They are the fourth-best red-zone offense—they score a TD 73.7 percent of the time they reach their opponents’ 20-yard line—and they are the fourth-best at third-down conversions, converting 47.9 percent of the time.

Davante Adams has once again been one of the best receivers in football. His dominance has helped Rodgers navigate Green Bay’s 7-3 path, despite key injuries to RBs Aaron Jones (calf) and Jamaal Williams (COVID-19), as well as receiver Allen Lazard (core muscle surgery). Adams leads the league in receiving yards per game with 105.9, and he’s second in the NFL with 10 touchdown catches. He would easily sit atop all receiving categories, were it not for the fact that he, too missed a couple games midway through the season (ankle).

With Jones back in tow the past couple weeks after missing two games, the Packers go back to being a dual-threat offense. The 25-year-old, currently in a contract year, broke out in a major way last season with 1,084 rushing yards and an NFL-leading 16 touchdowns on the ground (and an NFL-best 19 total TDs from scrimmage). In the eight game he’s played this season, he has once again impressed with 795 all-purpose yards and eight total scores. Williams has been a superb backup as well, averaging 4.1 yards per carry, catching 27-of-31 targets, and amassing 548 yards from scrimmage. With Lazard back as the oft-explosive WR2, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling—formerly known as a Rodgers irritant—even flashing moments of brilliance lately, this Packers squad is one of the best offenses in the business.

But its defense still leaves a lot to be desired. Green Bay blew a 14-point halftime lead last week to Indianapolis, ultimately fumbling away the game in overtime 34-31. It got destroyed by Tom Brady and the Buccaneers 38-10 earlier in the season, and has given up 28 or more points five times. Only three teams have fewer takeaways, and when the going gets tough, the Pack get run over. Indy had 140 yards on the ground last week. Minnesota racked up 179 rushing yards in its Week 8 upset over Green Bay, and another 134 in a Week 1 slugfest the Packers eked out 43-34 thanks to Rodgers. In the loss to Tampa Bay, you guessed it—another 158 yards allowed on the ground. If they can’t improve their rushing defense—or their 19th-ranked red-zone defense—it won’t matter how great Rodgers has been, because they will be run over and bounced out of the playoffs early yet again.

Chicago Bears Preview

Luckily for the Packers, it’s been a cakewalk to guard the offensively-inept Bears the last handful of weeks. After starting 5-1 despite an early-season QB change from Mitch Trubisky to Nick Foles, bad things started happening in Chicago. Running back Tarik Cohen got hurt. Foles started struggling in the pocket, with accuracy issues or turnover troubles or both. Head coach Matt Nagy seemed erratic and inconsistent with his offensive play-calling.

The Bears started 5-1, first place in the NFC North. They are now 5-5, down to seventh in the conference (eighth if you consider the NFC East winner gets an automatic playoff berth). Use whatever words you need to for this franchise—disaster, failure, dumpster fire—they all fit. This team cannot possibly continue to allow Nagy to run the show, as loyal Chicago fans deserve better than multiple years of the same types of epic collapses.

Just look at Chicago’s offensive rankings. They rank 31st in points, total yards, first downs, yards per rushing attempt, and average yards per drive. They rank dead-last in rushing yards (782), rushing touchdowns (just two all season), and third-down conversion percentage (31.1%). And despite attempting the third-most passes, they rank just 25th in passing yards. Trubisky got benched because he had just six touchdowns to go with his three picks through three starts. Foles now has 10 touchdowns to go with his eight picks through seven, and he’s questionable for the start this weekend after getting carted off the field last week. 

We get it, there’s been some pretty big injuries. Cohen has been sorely missed, and now fellow back David Montgomery has missed time with a concussion. But this Bears team has a Super Bowl-winning quarterback in Foles, a dynamic down-field receiving threat in Allen Robinson, a handful of young play-making receivers, and a veteran end zone threat in Jimmy Graham. Most importantly, this team has one of the best defensive units in professional football.

Led by three-time All Pro Khalil Mack, the Bears defense are the only thing Chicago has to be proud about these days. They allow the second-fewest passing touchdowns, the third-fewest rushing touchdowns, and the sixth-fewest total points on the season. They are the top-ranked red-zone defense, surrendering a touchdown on just 44.1 percent of opponents’ red-zone possessions. They are also the league’s best third-down defense, limiting opponents to a 33.1 percent conversion percentage.

Mack remains one of the best outside linebackers in the game. Roquan Smith and Danny Trevathan are arguably the best inside linebacker tandem, with 113 solo tackles between the two of them. Safety Eddie Jackson and cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyle Fuller highlight an elite secondary. Chicago’s offense does not deserve its superb defense, but its defense continues to show up and get the job done week in and week out. True football fans can only hope that with the major changes looming over this franchise in the next six to eight months, the one thing that stays relatively intact is its defensive unit.

Full Game Prediction

This is a game featuring division rivals going in two completely different directions and with two completely different franchise outlooks. Rodgers and Green Bay’s offense are absolutely electric, but the Packers defense stinks. Chicago has one of the best defensive units in the game, but its offense has been utterly abysmal and Nagy hasn’t even named a starter for this contest.

As much as we may all wish this Thanksgiving weekend game on Sunday Night Football ends up close, it’s hard to envision the Packers struggling too mightily in this one. The few games Green Bay has lost have been due to its awful rushing defense, and Chicago has the worst running game in the NFL. And in the three games the Packers have lost, their opponents have put up 38, 28, and 34 points, respectively. The Bears have failed to eclipse 23 points in any of their last seven games, and they produced 17 or fewer points in three of their last four. Rodgers and Co. blaze on this Sunday, hitting the moneyline but failing to cover -8.5, with a final score of 31-23.

Sloan Piva
Prediction Written by
Sloan Piva

Sloan is an avid sports bettor and sportswriter, with decades of experience in the industries of gambling and journalism. His specialties include football, basketball, baseball, and anything related to fantasy sports. Sloan’s a native New Englander, so his favorite teams are the Patriots, Celtics, Red Sox, and Boston College Eagles, but he always bets with his head and not his heart. He constantly has his finger on the pulse of the sports world, and never misses a big game. When he’s not watching or writing about sports, Sloan can be found spending time with his wife Chrissy and daughter Ellie, probably eating somewhere near the ocean. Follow Sloan for his picks, previews, and predictions, and start cashing more bets today!

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