Best Bets For UFC Vegas 59

Only one or two wins away from a shot at the UFC light heavyweight title, #10 Jamahal Hill faces his toughest opponent yet as he prepares to fight #6 Thiago Santos on Saturday, August 6th at UFC Vegas 59! Santos himself only needs one win to get back into the title conversation, making this fight very important for the future of the LHW division. In our co-main event, #6 Vicente Luque takes on #13 Geoff Neal to potentially decide who is next in line for a shot at the welterweight title.

Along with these two possible title-eliminating fights, The Ultimate Fighter season 30 finale also goes down on Saturday! Four finalists (including Kamaru Usman’s younger brother) will fight for their spot on the UFC roster as two TUF finale fights fill out the main card! Days away from a very important UFC card, let’s talk Best Bets for UFC Vegas 59: Hill v Santos on ESPN! Note: odds below were found at FanDuel.

Stephanie Egger (7-2) vs. Mayra Bueno-Silva (8-2-1) 

Egger (-136) vs. Bueno-Silva (+106), 7pm EST 

All week I have been saying “dog or pass” for this fight, but I really can’t find enough of a reason to put any value on Mayra Bueno-Silva being an underdog. I view her as a loose cannon in a fight, very unreliable to bet on. On the other hand, Stephanie Egger is someone who excels at beating a sloppy/chaotic opponent (which is exactly what Bueno-Silva can be). With a reach and height advantage, I expect Egger to use her distance & technical striking to pick Bueno-Silva apart on the feet for three rounds. Silva is a great grappler, but her attacks rely on her being in full-guard. Egger is a wrestler with heavy top-control.

If this fight goes to the ground, I anticipate Egger getting a lot of control time for the win. Whether the fight stays standing or hits the canvas, I see Silva going for a lot of desperation moves. Egger is too long and technical to fall into one of those traps. With Egger being on a 2-fight win streak and Silva being 2-2-1 in her last 5-fights, anything under -150 is a good play for Egger. You can even play Egger by decision to increase the odds.

BEST BET: STEPHANIE EGGER

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Brogan Walker (7-2) vs. Juliana Miller (2-1) 

Walker (+102) vs. Miller (-130), 11:15pm EST 

Sometimes the hype of a fighter alone can swing the odds in their favor. This fight is a perfect example of that happening. Juliana Miller comes into this fight as a slight favorite over the veteran Brogan Walker. Winner of this fight wins TUF season 30 and gets a UFC contract. Dana, the UFC, and most of the fans would like to see Juliana Miller get it done. She has a unique personality and quite frankly would be great for the sport. However, her inexperience is really going to be her downfall here (only three pro fights). Miller got two wins this season on TUF, but showed many flaws, putting herself in danger plenty of times. She keeps her chin in the air, her hands low, and really relies on nonstop BJJ attacks to win.

Brogan Walker is much more experienced than any of Juliana’s previous opponents. Walker is the better striker and could very well clip Miller’s open chin, putting her out. If Juliana is able to get it to the canvas, Walker has a black belt of her own and is a very top-heavy grappler. Miller’s frantic submission attempts from her back won’t work against the experienced top-heavy Walker. No matter how you slice it, Walker has the advantage here. Underdog money-line looks very tasty, but a KO could happen here too. Don’t listen to the ‘JuJu’ hype!

BEST BET: BROGAN WALKER

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Vicente Luque (21-8) vs. Geoff Neal (14-4) 

Luque (-188) vs. Neal (+146), 12:15am EST 

My biggest bet of the night will be backing someone who is usually very safe to bet on, Vicente Luque! Luque goes up against Geoff Neal, who is 1-2 since 2019. Luque is 10-2 in his last 12 fights, beating and competing against top competition since 2017. Meanwhile, Neal has never even beaten a ranked opponent.

Luque is the younger, taller, and longer fighter. He also brings more of a pace, has more power/speed, and is the better grappler of the two. Luque is one of my favorite fighters to bet on. His pace, aggression, and fight IQ makes me very confident in him at all times, even if the fight does go the distance. I see Luque’s style & pressure smothering Neal to a very clear decision victory, if he’s not able to finish him first.

BEST BET: VICENTE LUQUE

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Sergey Spivak (14-3) vs. Augusto Sakai (15-4) 

Spivak (-260) vs. Sakai (+196), 10:45pm EST 

My next two picks are meant to be parlayed together. Both Sergey Spivak & Jamahal Hill have clear advantages in their matchups, bringing the odds to -120 when you parlay them together.. Spivak goes up against Augusto Sakai, who has been KO’d in his last 3-fights. I don’t see anything differently happening here. Spivak is a very technical striker with KO power (6 career KO’s). Spivak is younger, more durable, and can match Sakai’s grappling with some very strong takedown defense. Not many avenues for Sakai to win here.

BEST BET: SERGEY SPIVAK parlayed w/Hill @ -120 

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Jamahal Hill (10-1) vs. Thiago Santos (22-10) 

Hill (-310) vs. Santos (+230), 12:45am EST 

Main event time! Jamahal Hill vs Thiago Santos… obviously Santos used to be a real threat in the LHW division, even bringing it to Jon Jones. I just think he is past his prime now at 38 years old. I think the damage to Santos' legs made him slow and cost him power. The only way I see him beating Hill is by submission, but I don’t think he’ll even be able to take down the seven-years-younger fighter (younger fighter 60% win rate with 6-plus year age difference).

Hill is so fresh, fast, and strong. Santos is going to have a very hard time making it out of the early rounds with Hill’s hands flying. The real question here is Hill’s gas tank. However, I don’t even think it will come into play. Throw Hill into a parlay with Spivak, unless you want to play the single on Hill by KO/TKO!

BEST BET: JAMAHAL HILL parlayed w/Spivak @ -120