Record Last Week: 2-2
Record on the Year: 7-6
Welcome back and we are onto Week 4 of the college football season. Last week I unfortunately only went 2-2 and a big reason for that was Army took their foot off the gas. We got back doored by UConn and the Black Knights allowed them to score 21 points in the second half, including an 80+ yard two-minute drill. Army makes me sick. Pitt also laid an egg against a MAC team which made me even more sick. Luckily, I am absolutely locked in on UMass and we hit their over, and Liberty has yet to let me down this season. I am 3-0 picking Liberty this year which includes two locks of the week.
This week we are a bit short on the bizarre games that I usually love to bet, and we are hurt by the fact Liberty is playing on Friday night, so we are going to take things in a bit of a different direction for Week 4.
This is a reminder that the Prodigy’s Picks are for under the radar games that no one is too excited to watch on television this weekend. Betting on Alabama, the SEC, or even games that are on national TV are not fun for me. The money is in the crumbs and this weekend we are going to get really crumby.
I said I was going a different direction this week and I lied. I have a 20+ point favorite hot and fresh for you on our Saturday slate. Last week we lost our “Lay the Points and Lock it in” special because Army doesn’t know how to finish a job. This week we are changing our focus to a team that loves to put up 50+ points and loves to step on throats.
I am going to be quick with this pick, UL Monroe is bad. The UL Monroe Warhawks have had a tough go in their last handful of games. Last week the Warhawks went and got a win, but it was against Jackson State an FCS school led by Deion Sanders. UL Monroe only won the game by 5 points with a score of 12-7, that is not ideal. Before their latest win the Warhawks last five games are as followed:
· Lost to Georgia State (52-34)
· Lost to University of Louisiana (70-20)
· Lost to Arkansas State (48-15)
· Lost to Kentucky (45-10)
This is a UL Monroe team that loves to get absolutely boat raced, and I have a feeling it will happen again this week when they go up against Troy who is an offensive juggernaut, but their defense has actually improved the most this season. The Warhawks quarterback Rhett Rodriguez will also be looking for his first touchdown on the year after starting the last four games. Personally, I am only looking to bet on teams who have a quarterback that has thrown a touchdown pass in four games of action, but that is just me.
Troy on the other hand, historically loves to beat up on bad schools. We haven’t seen Troy have an explosion of points since the opening week of college football where they laid 55 on Southern, which is why I believe the spread here is so low. Troy played a tough Liberty team tight in week two and had a nice second half rally to secure a win against Southern Miss last week.
I believe this week Troy gets back to their old form and throttles UL Monroe and covering the spread laying 24 points shouldn’t be an issue at all
I bet you thought the Lay the Points Lock it in was going to be Wyoming over UConn, didn’t you? Well folks every week I learn and grow a bit more and maybe laying 34 with an Army team was testing the limits a bit too much. This week I am back, and I am still fading UConn but in a bit of a different way. This week we are living by lyrics from the great Kid Rock himself and his 1998 hit “Cowboy”, “I Wanna be a Cowboy Baby” and I want Wyoming to put up 60 on UConn this weekend.
Watching a UConn football game is difficult because they are a dead, revolving door team, but betting against them is easy. I need to avenge my self for losing the Army UConn bet last week, and I am confident this is the way to do it. Although laying the points is usually smart against UConn, we saw last week that UConn’s starters may be more skilled than a team’s third and fourth stringers. To avoid getting backdoored once again we are just going to focus on Wyoming scoring points, which is one of the things they do best.
UConn has given up 146 points in three games against Division 1 opponents, including 42 alone in the first half against Army last week. That is really the only preview you need for the UConn Huskies. They can’t hold anyone from hanging a crooked number against them.
Wyoming is 3-0 on the year and got out of the gates slow against Middle Tennessee but since then have hit the gas, specifically on scoring points. In the past two weeks the Cowboys have scored 50 and 45 points against MAC defenses. The MAC is not well known for their defense, and either is UConn, so I love this pick. We are protecting our selves against a crazy cover, and I think Wyoming should easily have 28+ in the first half of this game.
I hate losing bets and the only way to feel better about losing a big bet is to get to work, study up, and bet on the team that beat you the week before. Two weeks ago, I loved Boston College to blow out UMass, that didn’t happen so last week we cheered on UMass to hit an easy over. Last week I loved Pitt to cover against Western Michigan and it was never even close. This week we grinded game film and are coming back with a Western Michigan winner to get our money back. In our last pick we were a Cowboy well now we are suiting up as a Bronco. Maybe we will start incorporating themes into this and have a week where I only pick Cowboy related teams. Food for thought
Get your lawyer on the line and sue me because I love MAC football schools. Western Michigan is hosting San Jose State this weekend and I love the Broncos to get the win and avenge my terrible bet from last week. The Broncos made light work of Pitt at Heinz Field last week and got themselves a statement win. This week they are welcoming a San Jose State team who has a lot of potential and expectations. Unfortunately for San Jose State I just think a MAC school is too much for them to handle.
Western Michigan’s offense looked like a pro team last week as they were able to pass for big chunks of yards on every attempt. Their defense left some to be desired as Pitt was able to bomb the ball and keep the game close, but Pitt couldn’t control the clock and ultimately ran out of time. The way that Western Michigan played this game was textbook and I think they will use a similar strategy against San Jose State in this game. San Jose State is famous for their passing game, but I have a feeling Western Michigan will control the clock again and limit San Jose State from being able to score at will. The Broncos will be without their head coach as he is out with COVID protocols, which is scary, but I think Western Michigan’s homefield advantage plays a role in this game.
San Jose State has forever been known for their Air Raid style of play and with a high-profile transfer under center in Nick Starkel they have only gotten more attention. San Jose State hasn’t impressed me much this season and I think they are getting a lot of credit from the sportsbooks because of their season last year. Last season San Jose State was 7-1 and won the Mountain West against Boise State. Personally, I was not impressed with San Jose State at all last season and HAMMERED Ball State to beat them in their bowl game. San Jose State didn’t stand a chance in that game, and I think they will be baffled by another MAC school this weekend in Western Michigan. I don’t understand why the spread is so low when San Jose hasn’t proved anything other than beating an injured Boise State team last season.
Give me the home team here in Western Michigan not even laying a full field goal
If you have been following along with these articles you know I loved BYU week 1 against Arizona and the kids just didn’t want it as bad as I did, and the Cougars failed to cover. As a result, BYU was suspended from being featured in this article for the next two weeks. I am sorry I was holding out on all of you last week because I loved BYU against Arizona State and I hit on BYU +3.5, BYU ML, and Arizona State under 26.5 points. To my credit though that was a game that featured two ranked teams on national television, so it had no right being featured in the Prodigy’s Picks. Lucky for me this week BYU is hosting an awful South Florida team that no one wants to watch. Go Cougars
BYU is playing host to a South Florida team this week that has had a lot of trouble on the year. South Florida was a door mat against NC State, failing to score any points in that game. The next week they were beat down by big brother Florida by a score of 42-20, with 17 of their 20 coming in the second half.
BYU has been a force at home this season especially in the first half of games and that is why I am not playing the full game spread in this matchup. BYU may be as good as they were last season, but their offense is not as explosive. The Cougars have not been putting up similar points as last season, so I am going to stay away from the full game bets. BYU is averaging 25.5 points this season so even a field goal could ruin the full game spread. I am putting my money on the Cougars in the first half to be up by 14 and I expect the homefield advantage to play a factor, while the game is still somewhat interesting to the fans. South Florida has not been competent this year and they are even less competent on the road against a team with real homefield advantage.
I sure hope BYU covers this first half because I don’t know if either they or I can survive another 2 week suspension from this article
The lock of the week has been Liberty the past two weeks and it has hit with almost no problem. This week I have to go outside my comfort zone a bit and pick a team other than Liberty. I am just kidding about the comfort zone part; I am picking a MAC school that I love this week in Buffalo. The Buffalo Bulls broke my heart earlier this year when I picked them to cover the number against Nebraska and score 21 points. Neither were very close, and I have not been too happy with one of my favorite MAC schools since but this week they get a chance to redeem themselves. The Buffalo Bulls are being disrespected to a whole new level by the books when the take on Old Dominion and I am looking to feast on it. We are fading Old Dominion for the second week in a row on our lock of the week and backing Buffalo.
Everything about this lock of the week is lining up to be a win. We have a MAC school that I love, a dumpster fire of an opponent, and Buffalo has broken my heart once this season so there is a zero percent chance it happens again. I think the oddsmakers have this spread set far too low and I am going to pounce on it this week.
Buffalo is coming off a great season last year where they played so well their coach got a new job in the Big 12. This season Buffalo has challenged them selves and scheduled a Big 12 opponent in Nebraska and a ranked opponent in Coastal Carolina. Unfortunately for Buffalo they dropped both of those game, but those losses have presented us with a juicy line against Old Dominion this week. Buffalo’s strategy is to run the ball heavily with multiple different backs and then find their opportunity to strike with a ball down the field. Old Dominion has showed they have almost no ability to stop either the run or pass. I expect Buffalo to let out some of their early season frustration on Old Dominion in this game and run the ball down their throat.
Old Dominion is one of the worst teams in college football and has major issues stopping the run. Last week, Old Dominion had no answer for Liberty on either side of the ball and I have a feeling this game will turn out in a similar fashion. Old Dominion managed to score 17 points last week against Liberty, but 10 points were gifted to them in the form of turnovers. Buffalo has one turnover on the season which was an interception in the Nebraska game. Buffalo’s running game, passing ability, and ball security makes me love this pick at (-13.5) where I would have figured the spread would have been 20.5. Lock it in!