The BMW Championship Betting Preview
Dustin Johnson and a handful of other golfers project well this week
Dustin Johnson, Tommy Fleetwood, Paul Casey, Jason Day, Francesco Molinari and Mark Leishman are solid BMW Championship bets due to their respective forms, statistics and the overall course design at Medinah Country Club.
The BMW Championship welcomes the top 69 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings. Kevin Na withdrew on Tuesday. This is a no cut event this week and only the top 30 will make it to the FedEx Cup finals at East Lake. Rain is in the forecast early in the week but will be dry for the entire tournament with highs in the low 80s. The Thursday morning tee offs will benefit the most from the soft conditions before the course gets firmer as the week goes on.
The Course
Medinah Country Club's Course No. 3
Par 72, 7,163 yards
The BMW Championship will be played at Medinah Country Club. The facility is a 54-hole golf complex. Players will be teeing it up on Course 3 which was built and designed by Tom Bendelow in 1928 and redesigned later by Rees Jones.
Medinah is known for hosting three US Opens, two PGA Championship, and finally the “Miracle At Medinah” Ryder Cup back in 2012. Course 3 looks like a really long track, measuring 7,657 yards but a lot of that yardage is taken up by the par 5s. Two of them measure over 605+ yards.
The fairways are bentgrass. This is a tree-lined course with over 4,700 trees and only three water hazards affecting five holes. The greens average is only about 4,800 square feet which is considered to be small on the PGA Tour. They are bentgrass and will run around a 12 on the Stimpmeter. The Kentucky bluegrass rough has been set at four inches so if you miss the first cut it will be fun to get out of.
Even if golfers use a driver off the tee, they will see three-shot par 5s as well as plenty of par 4s requiring a mid iron or more. All four of the par 3s measure at least 190 yards. Hole 2 is an exciting par-3 measuring 192 yards. It will require a very accurate iron tee shot. Golfers will be wet if they miss left or face a tough up and down if they bail out right.
Hole 7 is the longest hole on the course measuring 617 yards. It is definitely a par-5. A tee shot to the left side is ideal to set up a layup shot. Players will want to hit the green with their wedge or pay the price of the steep greenside bunkers. The green itself is elevated making it hard to read putts correctly. Some people consider the 476-yard par-4 12th one of the best holes in the world. It is unique in that there are no bunkers yet it is still very challenging. Golfers will need to stay on the right side to get the best angle to the green. Large oak trees protect the left side of the green. There is a pond on the right side of the green.
Hole 13 is Medinah’s signature hole. The par 3 measures 245 yards with a well-guarded green that slopes right to left. Players will have to be very precise with their tee shot. This should be a much welcomed week of golf as Medinah will not be a wedge fest.
The golfer who finds the most fairways and has the best proximity with their mid irons will have the best chance at winning the BMW Championship.
Six Pack Of Picks
Dustin Johnson (16/1, DraftKings)
Dustin Johnson ranks 1st in both averaging over 3 strokes gained:total for both. Medinah No. 3 fits both. His odds have financial upside attached, as DJ has fallen outside the top 3 to win. Johnson is coming off consecutive top 25 finishes. DJ ranks 3rd in SG: Tee-To-Green and 6th in SG: Off-The-Tee this season. He should be a factor this week.
Tommy Fleetwood (28/1)
Tommy Fleetwood’s game is coming on strong. It is good to see that he is ranked 2nd in approaches from 225-250 yards and 37th from 200-225 yards as golfers will be facing a lot off long-to-mid approaches. He is more than just a great ball striker, ranking 12th in SG: Off-The-Tee and 13th in SG:Tee-To-Green. Fleetwood is also top 6 in strokes gained on long courses since 2014. Fleetwood’s next win seems close as he has two top 4 finishes in his last 3 starts.
Paul Casey (40/1)
Paul Casey took the 1st playoff week to recharge and finish strong. He will now look to make that move pay off and contend this week. Casey ranks 9th in par-5 scoring, 6th in SG: Tee-To-Green and 9th in SG: Approach. He is great on long courses and putts better on bentgrass than other surfaces. There is no reason he cannot contend at Medinah Country Club this week.
Jason Day (55/1)
Jason Day has fallen out of automatically qualifying for the Presidents Cup and is not in the top 30 of the FedEx Cup standings either. This is a big week for him as he wants to finish strong and prove that he is worth a captain’s pick instead of being picked just because the President’s Cup is in his native Australia. Day just parted ways with caddie Steve Williams and is in line for a fresh start. He is ranked 6th in SG:Total on long courses.
Francesco Molinari (70/1)
The former Open winner is a great pick to buy low on. He lost over seven strokes putting at the Northern Trust. Since the cut isn’t an issue this week, Molinari can easily bounce back and contend. It was hard to see him lose that many strokes again with the flatstick. Molinari is 34th in the FedEx cup standings so he will have to play well to finish back in the Top 30.
Marc Leishman (70/1)
We often think of Adam Scott when we are asked to name a world-class ball striker from down under. Marc Leishman would like to add his name to the conversation. He is currently ranked 18th in SG:Approach and 2nd in par-3 scoring. His ball striking will come in handy for this tough course. He has a fabulous all around game ranking 35th in Scrambling, 39th SG:Tee-To-Green, 45th in SG: Putting. His 70/1 odds are low for a golfer who is currently 12th in the FedEx Cup standings.
Note: The advice above represents the writer's personal view and does not reflect or represent BetQL's stance or interest in any way.
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