South Point 400: NASCAR DFS Picks, Best Bets

NASCAR returns to a 1.5-mile track for the first time in 10 weeks. For many of the drivers deep in the standings, this is an opportunity to capitalize on their strengths. Most teams focus on the similarly-configured, 1.5 and 2-mile tracks since they make up the majority of the schedule.

Las Vegas counts alongside Atlanta, Charlotte, Texas, Kansas, Chicagoland, Homestead, and Kentucky. Drivers who perform well on one typically do well on all of them, but this year, with the lack of practice and qualification in order to limit personnel at the track during the COVID-19 pandemic, the wealth has been spread much more evenly.

Seven different drivers have won a race on this track type in eight races; Denny Hamlin is the only repeat winner. There have been two dark horse winners after Austin Dillon and Cole Custer drove to Victory Lane. Twenty-four drivers have scored at least one top-10 on this track type, and that opens up the field for some very interesting betting opportunities.

The drivers who believe they have a good chance to advance beyond this round will focus on using this partly as a test session because Kansas and Texas make up two of the three races in the Round of 8. Given the importance of track position in the closing laps of a race on the unrestricted, intermediate speedways, both strategies could work. Aerodynamic dependency is so great that being mired even fifth in the field is a huge deficit.

1. Kevin Harvick ****

($11,700 DraftKings | +450)

Harvick enters the South Point 400 with more momentum than any other stage of his career. He is close to becoming the prohibitive favorite to win the championship and it would take some high-level math and a series of major catastrophes to keep him from being among the Championship 4. But he’s not content. After getting his ninth win last week at Bristol, he has his eyes set on 10. The last time anyone had that many was in 2007 when Jimmie Johnson scored 10.

2. Joey Logano *****

($10,300 DraftKings | +650)

There is something about a historical mark that races the level of competition. Logano does not want Harvick to win 10 races and put his name in the record book, but mostly because he wants the victory instead. Logano has two Vegas victories in the last three races. When he took the Pennzoil 400 trophy home this spring, it appeared he would be one of the major challengers for the championship and a win this week puts him back in the conversation.

3. Brad Keselowski ****

($11,400 DraftKings | +600)

Last week was embarrassing for Keselowski. He touted his team’s short track prowess from Victory Lane just one week previous and then raced in the back-half of the field all day at Bristol. It was eventually revealed that his power steering had broken, but the damage was done. Now he simply needs to reload at Vegas. Keselowski is the only driver in the field to have swept the top-10 on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks. He was seventh at Vegas this spring.

4. Martin Truex Jr. ****

($10,600 DraftKings | +500)

Last week we ranked Truex 10th in the belief that his momentum would overcome his Bristol record. We were being overly enthusiastic. This week he is on a track type he has mastered with 12 of his 27 career victories coming on the 1.5-mile tracks. One of these was earned in last fall’s edition of the South Point 400.

5. Kyle Busch ****

($10,000 DraftKings | +900)

Based on his Vegas record alone, Busch should probably be a little lower than fifth this week. In 18 starts there, he has finished 15th or worse seven times. He’s earned the same number of top-fives, which means that he is an all or nothing driver on this track. Busch likes to run in front of the hometown crowd, but he’s only scored one victory on this track in 2009. At 9/1, the odds are not good enough to take a risk on an outright win, but with a relatively modest cap of $10k, he could be a solid anchor on your DraftKings fantasy lineup.

6. Denny Hamlin ***

($11,000 Draft Kings | +750)

Last week Hamlin was listed at +450 on the DraftKings sportsbook and we were hesitant to call him a good value in light of the modest return on investment. This week, he is 15/2 on a track type that has been kind in 2020. Hamlin is the only driver in the field with two wins on 1.5-mile tracks, including the most recent one at Kansas. Vegas has not been overly kind, however. He finished 17th there this spring and has not scored a top-five since 2015.

7. Ryan Blaney ****

($9,100 DraftKings | +1000)

Now that the pressure of the playoffs is off, Blaney may return to his midseason form. He finished 11th this spring in the Pennzoil 400 at Vegas and then went on to rattle off four-consecutive top-fives on 1.5-mile tracks followed by another pair of top-10s. He faded at Kansas in the most recent attempt on this course type, but there is good reason to think he will rebound. Three of his last five Vegas races ended in top-fives.

8. Chase Elliott **

($9,700 DraftKings | +900)

Elliott exceeded expectations last week at Bristol. He had a top-three capable car before he was stranded a lap off the pace by an ill-timed caution flag. He needs another solid performance this week in order to take the pressure off the Round of 12. Last year, he was solid at Vegas in the fall with a fourth-place finish. This spring, he struggled to 26th. Four of his eight similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track efforts this year ended in top-10s, but most of those came right after the return to racing in late-spring/early-summer.

9. Alex Bowman ***

($7,300 DraftKings | +3000)

It has taken a while for Bowman to get the hang of the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks this year, but he finally broke through with a top-10 at Kansas in the Super Start Batteries 400. His eighth-place finish in that race is one of only three top-15s in eight starts this year. One of the others came at Vegas in the spring when he was 13th. He has a greater upside to his record, however, because he finished 11th and sixth in the two races there last year. In the Draft Kings fantasy game, Bowman is a great value at $7,300, which is well below the average cost per player.

10. Austin Dillon ***

($7,600 DraftKings | +4000)

Picking Dillon to finish just inside the top-10 this week is not bandwagon jumping. Yes, he has improved his performance considerably during the playoffs, but there is an additional reason to regard him based on his similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track record. He has finished in the top-10 in every other race on this track type and if the pattern holds, he is due another. One of these top-10s was a fourth at Vegas this spring. Another was his Texas win during the summer when he was listed at +10000.

Kurt Busch **             

($8,700 DraftKings | +4000)

Busch has every reason to run well this weekend. Vegas is his hometown and he needs the win in order to advance to the Round of 8. Unfortunately desire is not going to be enough. In his last six attempts at Vegas, he has finished outside the top-20 five times. His dissenting result was a fifth last spring. That is one reason he could be a long shot. Another reason to consider him as a dark horse is because he has six top-10s on 1.5-mile tracks in eight races this year.

Tyler Reddick ****

($6,900 DraftKings | +6600)

Cole Custer and Dillon won on 1.5-mile tracks earlier this year with odds equal to or greater than what Reddick faces Sunday. In fact, the victory at Texas came down to a battle between Richard Childress Racing teammates with Reddick showing up second in the rundown. That is one of four top-10s on this course type for the rookie contender and with an average finish of 10.6 he is well worth his salary cap in the DraftKings Fantasy game.

Erik Jones **

($8,500 DraftKings | +4000)

The melody is about to stop on the current round of NASCAR’s musical chairs and Jones is still circling. In some ways, the announcement of Bubba Wallace signing with a new team recently formed by Hamlin and basketball legend Michael Jordan is good news because that team added a chair to the circle. Jones is still auditioning for 2021 and desperately needs a high note. It could come this week because his last two attempts on 1.5-milers ended in a sixth at Texas and a fifth at Kansas.

Matt DiBenedetto **

($7,900 DraftKings | +5000)

With Tim Cendric’s son Austin waiting in the wings for a Cup ride, it may not matter what kind of season DiBenedetto has had. An executive with Team Penske, Cendric might help open the door with their corporate partner the Wood Brothers and neither Matty D’s second-place finish this spring at Vegas nor his qualifying for the playoffs will carry much weight. He is driving for his career this week.

Cole Custer ***

($6,600 DraftKings | +10000)

At +6600, few expected Custer to challenge for a win at Kentucky and they are not looking his way at Vegas this week. That could open an opportunity for him to sneak to the front. His last 1.5-mile attempt ended in a seventh at Kansas.

Christopher Bell *

($7,100 DraftKings | +8000)

Bell doesn’t have a lot of momentum on his side and has fallen to one star in our performance rating. He is capable of outperforming that by a wide margin, however. With three top-10s in eight 1.5-mile races this year, he is at his best on this type of track and should be considered as a long shot to earn a top-10. On the DraftKings sportsbook, he is listed at +200 to finish that well.