NASCAR Pick Sheet: Drydene 400

Sportsbook and DFS advice for this weekend's race

By Dan Beaver - May 14, 2021, 10:09pm EDT

Races at Dover International Speedway are not for the faint of heart.

A race on this track used to be 500 miles and it would take as long as five hours to complete. In the mid-1990s, NASCAR began trimming the events to make for a friendlier TV package. There aren’t many drivers around who will complain about the adjustment.

A 400-mile race on the concrete high banks of Dover is still plenty tough. It rewards drivers with a lot of upper body strength and stamina. There are no great comparatives to Dover, but last week’s Darlington Raceway and the little sister track of Bristol Motor Speedway come close. All three tracks are tough on tires, which means racers have two agendas coming into the Drydene 400. They have to race the competition and the track.

Tire management is a key component to success on this track. The course is not quite as rough as Darlington, but you won’t see very many drivers stay out if there is a late caution. Strategy will play a smaller role this week than on at the Circuit of the Americas next week. Look for a combination of drivers who ran well last week and those with great Dover records. That is your sweet spot.

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1. Martin Truex Jr. *****

($11,900 DraftKings | +350)

It’s difficult to place anyone else in the top spot this week. Truex enters the Drydene 400 with a win and three second-place finishes in the last four Dover races. He scored the season’s first perfect Driver Rating from NASCAR at Darlington last week on a course where he’s had far less success in recent years. But at +350, he doesn’t offer a very good return on investment (ROI). With a salary cap of nearly $12k and a pole starting position, he won’t do you much good in the DFS game, either.

2. Kevin Harvick *****

($9,800 DraftKings | +750)

On the other hand, Harvick has odds that make him more attractive for a bet of a couple of units for the outright win. He won the second half of last year’s doubleheader and has not finished worse than sixth in his last six Dover starts. This team is not yet out of the woods. Stewart-Haas Racing continues to struggle, but Harvick is the first to start rising. He will win this year and as long as his odds are above the 7/1 ratio, he should be part of your betting strategy.

3. Kyle Larson ****

($11,500 DraftKings | +450)

The last time Larson was at Dover, he won the fall 2019 Drydene 400. Earlier that year, he was third in the spring race. His odds of winning this year are even better because he is in stronger equipment with Hendrick Motorsports. That organization has lost some of its consistency, but they continue to place nearly all four of their racers in the top-10 each week. Larson will continue to lead the charge for a while.

4. William Byron ****

($8,900 DraftKings | +1600)

With 10 consecutive top-10s, Byron is riding high. All streaks will come to an end, but it is unlikely that will happen to the No. 24 this week because they seem to be prepping for a second win. After Byron won the Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, he finished outside of the top-five in his next four attempts. In his last five efforts, he has three top-fives including last week’s fourth-place finish. He needs only a little improvement to challenge for the win.

5. Chase Elliott ***

($10,700 DraftKings | +800)

Elliott continues to be overvalued in terms of his odds and DFS salary cap, but last week gave us a glimmer of hope. He ran well on the rough-surfaced Darlington Raceway and seems to be heading in the right direction. He started his Dover career with six top-fives and a win in his first seven races. Last year, he finished fifth in the first half of the doubleheader, but didn’t get a chance to back it up because of a Lap 6 crash that eliminated the No. 24 from competition.

6. Kyle Busch ****

($10,000 DraftKings | +800)

For the first time this season, Busch has back-to-back top-fives. His victory at Kansas Speedway in the Buschy McBusch 400 took a lot of pressure off a driver who did not win in 2020 until he had already been eliminated from the playoffs. Last week, he expected to win again at Darlington and was annoyed at coming up short in third. If you don’t think he’s capable of the win on the concrete high banks this week, he is available at +210 for a top-three.

7. Denny Hamlin *****

($11,100 DraftKings | +600)

Hamlin is on the cusp of being a good value at 6/1. Given his strength in 2021 and how close he’s come to winning on several occasions, 6/1 are solid odds for a driver who has top-five finishes in all but three of his starts this year. The circumstances were different in 2020 and Hamlin was one of the dominant drivers, but he scored one of the two Dover wins in convincing fashion.

8. Joey Logano ***

($9,500 DraftKings | +1600)

Team Penske is all over the board these days. It’s hard to tell if they are experimenting now that all three drivers have victories or if what we are seeing is the best they have. Betting on any of them will be situational and depend on how deep down the list you go for your personal strategy. Logano has been solid at Dover in recent years with four top-10s in his last five starts. He is definitely a longshot for the outright win, however.

9. Alex Bowman ***

($9,200 DraftKings | +1800)

Frankly, Bowman wasn’t on our radar screen until midweek after a conversation with NBC analyst Steve Letarte. When we went back to look at his record, it showed a sweep of the top-three in 2019 and another top-five last year. Bowman has struggled recently, so his momentum is not great, but with outright odds of +1800, he deserves a bet of a couple of units.

10. Cole Custer ****

($7,700 DraftKings | +20000)

Custer is this week’s dark horse. It’s a big if, but if Harvick is able to improve and begin to elevate Stewart-Haas Racing, he’ll bring his teammates along. Dover is a throwback track that rewards sturdy drivers with a lot of aggression. Custer has not been able to show off his best stuff this year, but that could change on this high-banked track where he had an 11th and 10th in 2020. With top-three odds of +4000 and top-10 odds of +450, there are several bets to be had.

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