NASCAR Pick Sheet: Dixie Vodka 400

Who to bet on in this week's race

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Homestead-Miami Speedway is establishing a new book of records. Since NASCAR instituted the winner-take-all format for the playoffs in 2014, the Championship 4 have widely skewed the statistics because they always run better in that single race than their numbers would suggest. Now that this is ‘just another race,’ the stats will begin to level off.

Homestead is also unique to the other 1.5-mile tracks. It went through several iterations until progressive banking was added in 2003. With a true oval shape, that makes it distinct from the other progressively-banked, doglegged-oval of Las Vegas. Stats on this track take precedence, but the base setup for it is similar enough to the cookie-cutter tracks to use them when erratic behavior is discovered at Homestead.

Making matters even a little more complicated this week is the fact that this is Week 3 on the schedule with wild card races in the first two slots. Only time will tell if anyone has developed sustainable momentum - a case of hindsight being 20/20.

And Homestead is important for another reason. It begins to establish which drivers will be strongest on unrestricted intermediate speedways. More importantly, there is a strong likelihood that the drivers who run this week will be equally stout in Nevada next week. That won’t help you much with the favorites because the oddsmakers will be riding the bandwagon like a pioneer, but it could identify some solid dark horses.

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1. Martin Truex Jr. *****

($11,400 DraftKings | +700)

Truex Has been one of the strongest drivers in the first two races this season with literally nothing to show for his effort. He did not expect anything from the Daytona superspeedway and was not disappointed when he got swept into an early accident. That race was not his fault. He should have been a top-five contender on the road course, but made too many mistakes. That was his fault. This week he won’t make mistakes and will contend for the win.

2. Kevin Harvick ***

($10,100 DraftKings | +550)

This early in the season, it is easy to get excited about Harvick. He’s been one of the leading championship contenders for the past few seasons and had a career-year in 2020. Until, that is, the third round of the playoffs. He did not look strong in any of the last four races. That malaise carried into 2021 with disappointing results in the first two races. Still, he is the second-highest ranked driver on DraftKings Sportsbook, which says a lot about how he’s regarded. He is only the sixth-most expensive driver in the fantasy game. That also provides perspective.

3. Kyle Larson **

($10,700 DraftKings | +850)

Larson is listed as only a two-star choice this week. Quite frankly, that is because the formulas used are not quite certain what to do with his missing much of last year or how to adequately predict what will happen in his new No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy. With two surprise winners in the first two weeks of the season, 2021 is not going to plan. Larson has a great opportunity to keep the streak of unique winners alive before the Cup drivers head to another progressively-banked 1.5-mile course next week in Las Vegas.

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4. Brad Keselowski ***

($9,900 DraftKings | +1300)

Keselowski is often hard to handicap. It’s not as if he is some shrinking violet that fades into the background, but he’s not standing in the corner screaming either. He knows when to be patient and does not record a ton of laps among the top-10, so his Average Running Position or Driver Rating does not propel him to the top of pour strength-based formulas. He’s around at the end, however, and should never be completely overlooked - especially on 1.5-mile tracks.

5. Chase Elliott ****

($11,000 DraftKings | +650)

Perhaps we are giving in to the hype. Elliott is the defending 2020 champion, and deservedly so given how he ended the season. If one looks at the entirety of the nine months from last year, however, he showed inconsistency. What makes him a good value at this stage of the season is how he opened his run. He was solid until approximately the third-point of the year, struggled in the middle, and came on strong in the playoffs. That pattern should hold.

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6. Ryan Blaney **

($10,400 DraftKings | +1600)

Blaney did not win on a 1.5-miler last year, but he was easily the most consistent driver in the field with results of 11th or better in all but one race. In the Dixie Vodka 400, he finished third behind Elliott and Denny Hamlin. He had several other results on this track type in that same range and one simply never knows when he is going to break out. With 16/1 odds, there is a lot of upside to placing a modest wager for the outright win, but he may be more attractive at +450 for a top-three.

7. Denny Hamlin ****

($9,600 DraftKings | +500)

Hamlin is the top-ranked driver in terms of DraftKings’ outright odds to win at Homestead. The problem with algorithms is they don’t always tell you everything. Hamlin’s three wins on the progressively-banked 1.5-miler are impressive and it gives experts something to talk about - especially since he won last year. But Hamlin has top-fives in less than a third of his starts on this track and it is hard to make him a favorite.

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8. Alex Bowman *

($8,300 DraftKings | +3300)

Bowman’s overall record on 1.5-mile tracks is not very impressive and that drags his star-rating down to a single mark. That one bright spot in the sky is fairly large however. After getting off to a slow start in 2022 (including an 18th at Homestead), Bowman found the setup at Kansas in the fall and finished eighth. His last three races on the 1.5-milers were all in the top-10. Bowman got his first Cup win in 2029 in Chicagoland - and is capable of another this week. He is an easy bet at +120 for a top-10, even if he does not add much to the kitty with that return on investment.

9. Christopher Bell *****

($7,600 DraftKings | +2800)

Bell looks very attractive this week. He was not highly rated last week on the road course of Daytona and that was a mistake by everyone. He stepped up in his new ride and performed the way the No. 20 should. That was not a fluke. One other reason to highly value him is because Homestead rewards drivers who are capable of searching around on the track and finding the groove that best works for him. Look to another former dirt track racer Larson for an example of what to expect.

10. Joey Logano *****

($9,300 DraftKings | +1000)

Logano is a good value on the sportsbooks and in the fantasy game. If he had not been run over from behind by teammate Keselowski on the superspeedway, he would likely have back-to-back top-fives to start the season. He was erratic on 1.5-milers last year, but has two victories to show for his effort. One of these came during the playoffs and is recent enough to give him a set of notes from which to work.

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Others

Kyle Busch ****

($11,800 DraftKings | +900)

Until the pattern is more well-developed for Busch, we are going to have a difficult time ranking him among the top five. That is done with the full knowledge that he will make us look shortsighted a few times before he starts stringing strong results together. 

Kurt Busch ***

($8,100 DraftKings | +4000)

Many of the same things can be said of Busch as Keselowski above. He is not getting the attention he deserves, especially on 1.5-mile tracks but he has shown a lot of consistency with eight top-10s versus three results outside the top-15 in 11 races. If you have a little money left over in your budget, he might be worthy of a modest bet for a top-three with 10/1 odds. 

Tyler Reddick **

($8,500 DraftKings | +2200)

Reddick is ranked 10th on DraftKings Sportsbook. That is not entirely unwarranted despite his lack of experience because he has a propensity to excel on the high side and that’s the preferred groove at Homestead. The oddsmakers might have him listed about right, but their enthusiasm for Reddick has drug his top-three and -10 odds down and makes him only a marginal value.

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