NASCAR Pick Sheet: Autotrader 500

Who to bet on in this week's race

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Tom Pennington, Getty Images

As the season winds down, it's getting increasingly important for the playoff contenders to run well.

When Joey Logano locked into the Championship 4 last week at Kansas, it put pressure on all of the remaining seven contenders – including Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin who dominated the regular-season and entered the playoffs with a massive lead in bonus points over the remainder of the field.

With NASCAR’s win-and-you’re-in formula, Logano leapfrogged them and is now guaranteed to compete for the Cup. It also underscored the potential for other drivers deep in the standings to take one of those spots, leaving the leaders to fight over a single position that will be decided by points. Harvick’s second-place finish last week was important in light of Hamlin and his 15th-place finish.

A lot is still unknown. If any non-playoff contending driver wins in the next two weeks, another position opens up on points, and with his sub-10th-place result, Hamlin isn't guaranteed to have enough of a margin to make the Championship 4. Winning is still the most important thing on a driver’s mind, but the team cannot afford to gamble so greatly at Texas that they lose a lap.

Playoff contenders have dominated the top-10 for the last seven races. There's no reason to believe that will change this week in the Autotrader 500, but that also leaves room for non-contenders to sneak in and steal points – perhaps even the win.

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1. Kyle Busch ****

($9,300 DraftKings | +1500)

Busch is closing in on a victory and it’s only a matter of time before it comes. We’re willing to bet it happens before the end of 2020 and the best place for him to do that is on a similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track. Three of his last four results on this course type have ended in results of sixth or better. At $9,300, he is one of the best values in DraftKings’ fantasy game with a potential to score maximum points.

2. Kevin Harvick ****

($11,000 DraftKings | +240)

Harvick is the oddsmakers’ favorite again. This happens with such regularity that it is difficult to keep him as part of your betting strategy on any week, except when he is truly expected to win since he is almost always prohibitively favored to finish in the top-five or top-10. This week might not be the best time to pick him for the overall victory. Harvick has the big picture in mind and the two races on short, flat tracks are much more important than this week on the 1.5-miler.

3. Ryan Blaney ***

($10,000 DraftKings | +1000)

Blaney easily had the best car this summer at Texas, but a late-race caution left the team in a difficult position. Blaney pitted while several others stayed out – and as a result, he was relegated to seventh in the final rundown. This is his chance to get revenge.

4. Erik Jones ****

($8,900 DraftKings | +2800)

Last week, we also had Jones ranked fourth. He ran well enough to make good on our promise until he scraped the wall and did too much damage to stay with the leaders. This week, he announced plans to run for Richard Petty Motorsports in 2021. With that pressure off his shoulders, he will contend for the victory.

5. Joey Logano ****

($9,800 DraftKings | +750)

With odds of +1400 last week, Logano blocked his way to Victory Lane and became the first driver to lock into the Championship 4. That improved his odds to +750 this week. Don’t get lulled into a false sense of security because the No. 22 has not magically fixed their problems on unrestricted, intermediate speedways.

6. Chase Elliott ****

($10,500 DraftKings | +850)

Based on his recent momentum, DraftKings Sportsbook has Elliott ranked third behind Harvick and Hamlin. They are not giving his Texas record enough consideration, however, because he has not scored a top-five there since his rookie season of 2016. At $10,500, he's an equally bad value in the fantasy game.

7. Denny Hamlin **

($10,800 DraftKings | +450)

Hamlin is fool’s gold. His regular-season record makes him shiny and attractive, which is part of the reason for his -143 odds of finishing in the top-five, including his -560 odds for a top-10. He has scored only two top-10s during the playoffs, however, and should be avoided until the series returns to short, flat tracks.

8. Martin Truex Jr. ***

($10,200 DraftKings | +1000)

Truex is one of the chilliest drivers in the field. He refuses to worry about his odds of advancing to the Championship 4 until race day – but all too often this season, he has started to sweat when he’s been forced to walk to the back of the grid after his car failed inspection. Last week at Kansas, that cost him an opportunity to challenge for the Hollywood Casino 400 win and dropped him 31 points below the cutline.

9. Kurt Busch ****

($8,500 DraftKings | +2800)

With outright odds of +2800, Busch’s handicap drags down his top-three odds to +700 and top-five odds to +325. That makes him a tempting wager because he enters the weekend with a current seven-race streak of top-10s and 10 such finishes in his last 12 races there. None of those results have been better than seventh, however, so don’t commit too much of your bankroll.

10. Tyler Reddick ****

($7,900 DraftKings | +5000)

Reddick is a four-star value this week and with a little luck, he will score his sixth top-10 on a 1.5-mile track. His runner-up finish to teammate Austin Dillon in the O'Reilly 500 was aided by pit strategy, but he was contending for a solid finish before then. Avoid the outright wager and concentrate on his +550 odds to finish in the top-five or his +140 for a top-10.

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Brian Lawdermilk, Getty Images

Brad Keselowski ***

($9,600 DraftKings | +1100)

Keselowski would like to concentrate on the win this week since it comes with an automatic berth in the playoffs. He can’t, however, because Elliott is right behind him in the points standings and much better at Texas. Kez has only one top-10 on this track in the past three seasons, which came this summer in the O'Reilly 500.

Jimmie Johnson ***

($9,400 DraftKings | +5000)

It’s unclear what the salary cap managers are thinking where Johnson is concerned. Last week, they had him priced at $9,200 and we said that was a bad bargain. He finished 31st at Kansas and the cap algorithm added $200 to his total. He’s still not worthy of that valuation.

Chris Buescher ***

($6,800 DraftKings | +50000)

Buescher isn't anchoring very many fantasy rosters, but he is well worth his modest salary cap. Last week, he was the 23rd-most expensive driver in the game and he earned the 22nd-most points (23.5). There's an even bigger upside, however, because he banked the eighth-most points (45) a few weeks ago on the similarly-configured Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Ryan Preece *

($5,900 DraftKings | +100000)

Preece isn't going to win anything on the sportsbook, but he remains a good fantasy value. In 10 races on 1.5-mile tracks this year, he has earned 18 or more points in half of his starts, usually with an equally modest cap value as that which he commands at Texas.

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