NASCAR Pick Sheet: Ally 400

It’s all a mystery this week. 

Nashville Superspeedway is a quirky track that does not have a strong comparative. It’s rough-surfaced, which may allow bettors and gamers to look at Dover International Speedway. The two ends are not the same – and that might take you down the road to Darlington Raceway.

This week, a former NASCAR crew chief told us that back when the Xfinity and Truck series visited Nashville, the teams would set up the car to work for a short track on one end and Dover on the other. But, he said, with a decade since any of NASCAR’s series visited this track, the unknowns are much greater than the knowns.

Luckily there will be an hour long practice on Saturday – God willing, and the creek don’t rise – and that will give you one final look at who is capable of finding the setup. Check the lines one final time on Sunday morning after qualification, because many of the lines will move and that is going to create some opportunities and eliminate others.

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Kyle Larson (+275)

$11,800 DraftKings | +275

As long as Larson is on this kind of roll, it’s hard to suggest fading him. Of course, that doesn’t mean that you have to place a wager that is not going to provide a decent Return on Investment. Larson’s odds are such that an outright win is the only bet you have available – and winning in NASCAR can be difficult to predict. Larson is seeking his third consecutive victory. The last time a driver three-peated was Brad Keselowski in 2018.

William Byron

$9,700 DraftKings | +1200

Even with Nashville’s unique quirks, we like Dover as a comparative. The Drydene 400 was only four race weekends ago, so it is close enough that the drivers who ran well there still have momentum. Hendrick Motorsports swept the top four positions, which is the only time in the history of NASCAR that a team has done that with four entries. When Jack Roush did so in 2005 and Pete DePaolo did it twice in the 1950s, they had more bullets in their chamber.

Kyle Busch

$9,900 DraftKings | +900

The best thing about an inaugural race is that NASCAR relaxes their COVID-19 procedures a little bit to allow for practice and qualification. It is only an hour, but that should be enough for Busch to figure out what his baseline should be and how to build adjustability into the setup. When Busch practices, he is strong, and even if you chose to ignore the outright win bet, he is a good value to score a top-three at +240.

Chase Elliott

$10,700 DraftKings | +700

Never underestimate the power of a healthy appetite. Elliott is hungry for another win simply because he’s tired of being outrun by his teammate Larson. Both drivers are in their prime and they are both going to have ample opportunities to lead Hendrick Motorsports at stages of their career. But for now a script is being written that has Elliott in a supporting role and that impression will stick in the minds of pundits and fans if Elliott is not able to beat the No. 5 soon.

Alex Bowman

$9,300 DraftKings | +1400

Bowman led the Hendrick brigade at Dover to score his second win of the season, but he is not getting very much respect from oddsmakers. Because he lacks the consistency of Larson and Elliott, he is regularly handicapped outside the 10/1 mark. He doesn’t have the flash to be ranked among the top-five, but if he practices well it is likely that a line movement is going to change the ROI significantly. If you’re thinking about Bowman this week, lock him in before Saturday’s practice because this is probably best line you will find.

Martin Truex Jr.

$10,400 Draft Kings | +650

Truex has been inconsistent since winning his first Cup race of the season at Phoenix Raceway. Since then, he has four top-fives that are overbalanced by five results outside the top-15. Two of those strong runs ended in Victory Lane, however, which makes us believe this team is experimenting. When they get the setup right, they are among the best in the field, but when they get it wrong, they are a questionable bet at best.

Kevin Harvick

$9,100 DraftKings | +1300

Oddsmakers are slowly losing confidence in Harvick, but they know this driver is too strong to make him a wild dark horse. They’ve settled in a range just outside of 10/1, but usually better than 15/1. He’s capable of winning and when that happens, no one is going to be overly surprised. In the two previous seasons, Harvick earned nine top-fives on rough-surfaced tracks in 12 races; four of those were victories. At Darlington and Dover earlier this year, he finished sixth in both races.

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Joey Logano

$8,900 DraftKings | +1300

We’ve seen this before. With a win in the bank, Logano is more likely to experiment and takes more risks. That makes him a risky proposition. But it can also allow him to tenaciously hang on to the lead pack in the closing laps if he has track position. In his last six rough-surface races, Logano has been all over the board with two top-fives, another pair of top-10s and a worst finish of 13th. That makes him a good bet to finish in the top-10, but an iffy proposition for a top-five.

Denny Hamlin

$10,100 DraftKings | +850

Hamlin has a top-five percentage of .563 this season, which leads the series. When he misses, it is by a slim margin and his top-10 percentage of .750 is also top of the chart. He would probably trade several of those top-fives in for a win, however, because his grasp on the points lead is becoming increasingly tenuous now that Larson is on a roll. Worse still, he has not scored a top-five in his last five starts. He needs a strong run this week to silence the critics. 

Ryan Blaney

$8,700 DraftKings | +1800

At 18/1 odds, we like Blaney as a longshot. All three Team Penske drivers are outside the 10/1 mark this week and each of them is capable of scoring a top-10 finish, but Blaney is the one singled out by the traders as having the least opportunity. Blaney has hovered on either side of 10th in the two rough-surface races this year with an eighth at Darlington and a 12th at Dover.