Michigan Doubleheader: NASCAR DFS Picks, Best Bets

Historically, the two tracks that have always had the fewest weeks between their first and second races on the NASCAR Cup schedule have been Pocono Raceway and Michigan International Speedway. Fate dictated that in 2020, both courses would run their pair of races as weekend doubleheaders.

It paid huge dividends to roll off the hauler fast at Pocono earlier this year. Two drivers dominated both events with Kevin Harvick winning on Saturday and Denny Hamlin winning on Sunday. Each driver finished second in the other race. Aric Almirola also swept the top five.

Martin Truex Jr and Clint Bowyer swept the top 10 in those two races with Brad Keselowski, Matt DiBenedetto, William Byron, and Matt Kenseth sweeping the top 15.

Michigan has been traditionally kind to sweeps as well even when there have been six or seven weeks between the two events. This week, go ahead and set your provisional lineups for Sunday so you can reserve your spot in the DraftKings contest, but be prepared to make adjustments based on Saturday’s results. Any driver who finishes in the top five in the FireKeepers Casino 312 deserves extra attention the following day.

Group A

Aric Almirola ($9,100 [Sat.], $9,200 [Sun.] DraftKings | +1400)

Since Homestead, Almirola has been one of the most productive picks in the Draft Kings game. In seven of the last nine races, he has earned the eighth-most or better points while commanding a salary cap that was well outside the top 10. In the past two weeks the algorithm has caught up and the game has him priced about where he should be. For the Michigan doubleheader, he is the 10th-most expensive driver on Saturday and ninth-most on Sunday, but this is a track that rewards momentum and with top-10s in nine consecutive races, Almirola has it to spare.

Kevin Harvick ($11,000 [Sat.], $11,500 [Sun.] DraftKings | +450)

Despite his incredibly high salary cap, Harvick continues to bank a lot of points. He has posted the most points on four occasions; one of those was on another unrestricted, intermediate speedway in Atlanta. He has earned top-five points 11 times and the sixth-most on one other occasion. He doesn’t show any sign of slowing down, so if you can manage the bottom of the cap value well enough, he should be on the roster. We do have one word of caution, however; at Auto Club this spring Harvick scored only the 15th-most points (31.5) while commanding a similar cap of $11,600.

Group B

Tyler Reddick ($7,200 [Sat.], $6,900 [Sun.] DraftKings | +5000)

We’re going all-in on Reddick this week. His salary cap is well below the average-per-player of $8,333 for both races and is cheaper than he has been for the past eight weeks. In that span, he has earned top-five points once, top-10 points on two other occasions, and been inside the top 15 for the last five weeks. Michigan can be prone to fuel mileage contests. We saw that last year as one driver after another ran out of fuel in the final laps. Richard Childress Racing has been very successful in these types of events, so Reddick could even pull out a surprising 50/1 victory.

Cole Custer ($6,700 [Sat.], $7,500 [Sun.] DraftKings | +6000)

Custer has also been a high performer in recent weeks. He scored the third-most points (64.5) at Indy and was second-best (77.75) at Kentucky where he won and placed his team in the championship rounds. In recent weeks, he’s been a top-10 performer at Kansas and New Hampshire. Three of these tracks are unrestricted, intermediate speedways that should factor heavily into this week’s handicap. Custer is almost guaranteed to outperform his cap level in both Michigan contests. As of Friday, he showed +160 odds to finish in the top-10 for the FireKeepers Casino 312 and that should be about the same for Sunday. He’s worth a modest wager.

Kurt Busch ($8,000 [Sat.], $8,800 [Sun.] DraftKings | +450)

Busch is a good value on Saturday with a cap of $8,000, but players will want to see how he performs in that race before committing to Sunday. His $800 increase between the two races could make a big difference in how one manages their lineup. The upside to Busch is high. Until last summer, he had seven consecutive top-12 finishes at Michigan and would have added another if he had not run out of gas on the final lap of the Consumers Energy 400 while running eighth.

Group C

Ty Dillon ($5,700 [Sat.], $5,700 [Sun.] DraftKings | +50000)

Dillon has outperformed his salary cap in 14 of the first 20 races of this season. Seven of those strong runs came in the last eight attempts, including both Pocono races of that track’s double header. If you are building your lineup from the bottom up, Dillon deserves a spot as a place holder at the least.  In last year’s August Michigan race, he scored the ninth-most points (43).

Michael McDowell ($6,100 [Sat.], $6,200 [Sun.] DraftKings | +75000)

McDowell is not just a good value considering his cap value, he is a strong pick overall. In seven races so far this year, he has scored enough points to rank among the top 12. All but one of those contests banked more than 45 points. When he is judged according to his cap value, the numbers are even more impressive. There have been only three races this year in which he earned fewer than 24.5 points and underperformed.