Florida Headlines Week 3 College Football Home Underdog Values

These huge home underdogs stick out as strong value bets

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  • The #11 Florida Gators are 2-0, but are +515 moneyline underdogs against the #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) on Saturday. There are a couple of reasons to like the Gators in this spot.

  • The Kansas Jayhawks are 1-1 on the year and are +605 dogs at home against the 2-0 Baylor Bears on Saturday. One player in particular can make a difference for KU in this contest.

  • Finally, 1-1 Louisiana Tech (+395) and their prolific offense will give 2-0 SMU a run for their money. Keep reading to find out all the details.

#11 Florida (+515) vs. #1 Alabama, Saturday 3:30pm EST

Think Nick Saban was happy his team allowed 14 points to Mercer in their second game? Probably not. After routing Miami 44-13 in their season opener, more questions than answers arose after the Crimson Tide’s 48-14 victory over Mercer last time out.

Let’s start out by noting that it’s never a fantastic idea to bet against Bama. 

However, when a talented team like Florida has these odds against them at home, it’s difficult to simply ignore the situation. It’s especially difficult to ignore the situation when a player like Florida’s Anthony Richardson is involved. 

Richardson has been absolutely incredible in his limited time on the field so far for the Gators. In a 35-14 win over Florida Atlantic in Week 1, he threw for 40 yards, but added 160 yards on just seven carries and scampered in for a touchdown. In a 42-20 win in Week 2 over South Florida on the road, he went 3-3 for 152 yards and two touchdowns and added 115 yards on just four carries with another score. 

In other words, the dude is absolutely electric, even as a backup to starter Emory Jones. 

Richardson is questionable for this matchup due to some hamstring tightness, but if he plays, it will allow UF to include some different packages in the ultimate hope of confusing Saban and his star-studded defense. The line got all the way to +465 for Florida before injury news came out, so it makes sense to jump on this now if you think Richardson will be available.

Oh, and in Florida coach Dan Mullen’s career, he’s gone 11-1 after gaining 475+ yards in back-to-back games (+14.1 units).

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Kansas (+605) vs. Baylor, Saturday 3:30pm EST

Kansas opened as +630 underdogs in this contest and sit at +605 as of Tuesday afternoon. With 14.2% implied odds to win, the Jayhawks are a huge home dog, and for good reason. 

They’ve been absolute trash in recent history.

What makes KU exciting this year is that they have a dynamic quarterback. Junior Jason Bean went 17-26 for 163 yards and two touchdowns through the air and added 54 rushing yards on 15 carries in Kansas’ 17-14 Week 1 win over South Dakota. Then, he went 12-23 for 189 yards passing and added 13 carries for 102 yards and two touchdowns in his team’s 49-22 Week 2 loss to #16 Coastal Carolina. 

Although Baylor beat down Texas Southern 66-7 in their second game, they had a somewhat difficult time against Texas State on the road in Week 1, when they won 29-20. 

As seen in the past, dual threat quarterbacks like Bean can pose threats to any team in the nation. Baylor isn’t ranked yet for a reason and they aren’t susceptible to an upset against a team like Kansas at this point in the year.

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Louisiana Tech (+395) vs. SMU, Saturday 3:30pm EST

If you recall, LA Tech nearly upset Mississippi State on the road in their first game (35-34) and just took down Southeast Louisiana 45-42 in their second contest. They led Mississippi State 31-14 heading into the fourth quarter, but ended up getting outscored 21-3 to lose. 

Therefore, this team has legitimate talent on the offensive side of the ball, starting with quarterback Austin Kendall, who is now in his third college program after transferring from Oklahoma and West Virginia. 

He went 20-36 for 269 yards, two touchdowns and an interception through the air and took five carries for 68 yards and another score against the Bulldogs in that game. Then, he accounted for another rushing touchdown and went 19-27 for 217 yards, a touchdown and an interception in the team’s first win of the year last time out. 

SMU beat Abilene Christian and then North Texas to improve to 2-0 and has a star quarterback in Tanner Mordecai. However, the Mustangs should not have an implied win percentage of 79.8% on the road in this contest in my opinion. LT opened at +415 and the line moved to +395, so I’d suggest getting them at this value before any more less-appealing movement occurs.

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