Foxwoods Casino 301: NASCAR DFS Picks, Best Bets

The momentum from the last three races on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks will play a factor, but it is not the primary thing fantasy players should consider when handicapping races at New Hampshire, Phoenix, Martinsville, or Richmond. These four tracks are rhythm courses, where success comes from masterfully applying the throttle and brake.

Normally there would have been three races on this track type so far in 2020, but Richmond was one of the tracks unable to reschedule their spring event after the COVID-19 break. As a result, we are left to consider the FanShield 500k at Phoenix and Blue-Emu 500 at Martinsville as we handicap the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 at New Hampshire.

NASCAR decided to eliminate practice and qualification in order to limit the amount of support staff at the track before Martinsville. But 500 laps provided its own practice during the race and by the end there were a lot of familiar names at the front of the pack with Martin Truex Jr. leading a top-five made up mostly of Team Penske. Ryan Blaney finished second, Brad Keselowski third, and Joey Logano was fourth.

There is every likelihood we will see the same kind of output this week, but that does not mean there are not some stellar values deeper in the pack that will fit any cap management strategy.

Group A:

Joey Logano ($9,800 DraftKings | +1200)

Over the past 45 days, Logano has been one of the least productive among DraftKings’ most expensive drivers. That has dropped his salary cap below the $10k mark and provides fantasy players with a great opportunity. If the short, flat tracks do indeed behave differently than the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks, Logano’s recent struggles should not be held against him. He won the last race on a 1-mile flat track pre-pandemic and Logano is the only driver with two top-fives in the first two races on this track type. He was fourth at Martinsville.

Chase Elliott ($9,100 DraftKings | +1000)

Elliott is also moderately priced this week for the same reason as Logano. He lost a lot of momentum on the "cookie-cutter" courses, but ran well in at least two of those races. Elliott is one of four drivers with top-10s at both Phoenix and Martinsville this year. The last time he started out this strong on short, flat tracks was in 2018 and he almost swept the top 10 that year. Full disclosure demands that players consider last year’s record as well, however; in 2019 he had an average finish of 21st on this track type.

Group B:

Aric Almirola ($8,500 DraftKings | +1600)

To a man, NASCAR drivers will tell you they cannot explain what starts or stops a streak such as the one Almirola is currently enjoying. After suffering through five consecutive results of 15th or worse (and amassing an average finish of 22.8), Almirola shocked the field with a fifth-place finish at Homestead. Since then, he has swept the top 10 in eight attempts (with a 5.38 average finish). The first five results were in the top five; his last three have been sixth to 10th, so he may be tailing off slightly. Nevertheless, he is well worth his cap.

Kurt Busch ($7,700 DraftKings | +3000)

Along with Group A’s Logano and Elliott, Busch is one of the four drivers in the field with top-10s at both Phoenix and Martinsville. William Byron is the other driver who has run this well, but he is slightly more expensive in the Draft Kings game and far less consistent than the veteran. Busch enters the weekend with three straight top-10s and it is rare for him to finish outside of the top 15. As the 16th-most expensive driver in the lineup, he is destined to outperform his salary cap.

Matt DiBenedetto ($8,300 DraftKings | +5000)

In 10 of the first 19 races this year, DiBenedetto has outperformed his cap level. In five of those races, he was one of the top-10 performers. Two of those strong runs came on flat tracks with a seventh at Martinsville and a sixth at Pocono. He earned the eighth-most points (50) at Martinsville and the 10th-most (40.5) at Pocono. He was the 11th-highest performer in the other Pocono race (39). DiBenedetto has been one of our favorite dark horses all year long and that will continue until he stumbles.

Group C:

Chris Buescher ($6,100 DraftKings | +30000)

Buescher has taken a lot of lumps in recent weeks and that has caused the Draft Kings algorithm to seriously discount him entering New Hampshire. The same thing applies to Group C drivers as those in A, however; and that is that short, flat tracks behave differently than the “cookie-cutters.“ Buescher needs to be judged on how he has performed on minimally-banked tracks and in that regard, he has been in the front half of the pack for the last four consecutive races with results of 17th or better at Phoenix and Martinsville. Last year, Buescher finished 15th at New Hampshire in less powerful equipment. He should be able to back that up in the Foxwoods Casino 301.

James Davison ($4,500 Draft Kings | +200000)

If you are willing to throw away a few points in order to free up a ton of salary cap at the top, Davison is worth more than just a casual look. His road racing skill makes him well-suited for the flat corners of New Hampshire. We said the same thing before the Pocono doubleheader and while he certainly did not set the track on fire, he didn’t lose any ground either with 11 points in Race 1 and 18 points in Race 2. He was also $500-$700 more expensive in those two contests, which may not have freed up as much as one expected to upgrade their second Group A driver. At $4,500 this week, he’s as cheap as you are going to find.