Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400: NASCAR DFS Picks, Best Bets

There are similarities between this week’s venue Indianapolis Motor Speedway and last week’s Pocono Raceway that will factor into the handicap of the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400.

Both are 2.5-mile, geometric oddities. In fact, Indy provided the inspiration for one of Pocono’s three corners. Pocono is a triangle; Indy is a rectangle and both require drivers to do the majority of their braking entering the corners before accelerating at the apex. As such, they also share some commonalities with road courses.

But this is the Brickyard: the famed oval that is the emotional epicenter of the entire sport of auto racing. Every driver – no matter if he or she has cut their teeth on paved bullring ovals, dusty dirt tracks, or in the wilds of off road racing – dreams of someday crossing the yard of bricks first. So far, 15 racers have won a NASCAR Cup race on this track including active drivers Jimmie Johnson with four victories, plus Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick with two. Brad Keselowski and Ryan Newman have one victory apiece. That leaves a lot of room for a new winner this week.

Indy is kind to dark horses. Harvick’s first win in 2003 came as the result of fuel mileage. So did Paul Menard’s victory in 2011. Both drivers were racing for Richard Childress Racing at the time, which could bode well for Austin Dillon or Tyler Reddick.

More likely the win will come from someone with momentum on their side such as Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, or Ryan Blaney. One thing is certain, however, and that is this race will be one of the most cherished of the year. Ever since Jeff Gordon recorded the first win for a stock car on the famed oval in 1994, this has been a Crown Jewel event.

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Group A

Kevin Harvick ($11,000 DraftKings | +400): Starting 11th

Harvick is expensive in DraftKings this week, but his services will likely be required to take the top spot in any lineup. After winning his first race on this track at the beginning of his career it took some time to find his rhythm again. As soon as he climbed behind the wheel of one of Tony Stewart’s cars, however, he’s been unstoppable with a perfect record of six top-10s that culminated in last year’s victory. Add in a first and second-place finish last week in Pocono’s double header and you have a clear picture of how he will run this week. 

Kyle Busch ($10,400 | +550): Starting 7th

Busch continues to be one of the favored sons of the odds makers no matter how many times he stumbles. The reason is that he doesn’t stay down long. Still, he robs fantasy players of a lot of points when he misses the setup or makes a mistake and one must accept that risk every time they activate him. Busch is not the type of driver who adjusts well on the fly; his emotions tend to get in the way. More than any other A-list driver, he misses practice – but coming off last week’s 675-mile session on a similarly-configured track should give the crew a great baseline setup. More importantly, it will give Busch confidence when the green flag waves. 

Group B

William Byron ($8,700 Draft Kings | +2500): Starting 18th

Early Friday evening, Hendrick Motorsports reported that Jimmie Johnson tested positive for COVID-19. Per NASCAR’s rules, in compliance with guidelines set by the CDC, he will not be allowed to race until he has been cleared by a physician with two negative tests. In his absence, the remaining HMS drivers will rise to the occasion and that makes Byron a strong choice this week. Last year Byron swept the top 10 on the 2.5-mile flat tracks, which included a fourth at Indy. Last week he was seventh in Sunday’s Pocono race. He is more than capable of finishing in the top 10 this week and with an 18th-place starting position, he will add significant place-differential points.

Erik Jones ($8,100 | +2500): Starting 23rd

Jones is an all or nothing proposition on the 2.5-mile flat tracks. In 11 starts at Indy and Pocono, he has finished outside the top 25 four times – including in two of the last three races. In the seven remaining events, he has earned six top-five finishes and an eighth. Last week he was on his way to a strong run at Pocono on Saturday before a mid-race accident. He rebounded to finish third in Sunday’s race. We’re willing to bet he carries that momentum forward into the Big Machine 400.

Aric Almirola ($7,400 | +3300): Starting 5th

Almirola certainly has not set Indy on fire in the past. In eight career starts, he has only two top-15s and no top-10s. Both of these have come in his last three starts. He seems to be improving on the track. Better still, he is much stronger overall this year than at any other point of his career. Almirola did not have a particularly strong record at Pocono either before last week. He had the dominant car on Saturday before misplaying the strategy slightly. He might have won that race, but settled for third. Almirola finished fifth on Sunday and could easily sweep the top five on the 2.5-mile flat tracks. 

Group C

Michael McDowell ($5,700 | +100000): Starting 27th

McDowell is consistently one of the cheapest drivers in the game. Since the return to action after the COVID-19 break, he has cracked the $6k mark only once and that was on the wild card plate track of Talladega. With the exception of his accident at Pocono last Sunday, he has outperformed his cap level in every race. McDowell earned the fifth-most points in Pocono 1, the ninth-most at Homestead, and the 11th-most at Martinsville 1. With some smart decisions made among mid-cap drivers, signing McDowell will free up enough room to take two A-listers. 

Ryan Newman ($5,900 | +12500): Starting 14th

There is a disparity between Newman’s cap value in the fantasy game and Draft King’s sports book odds. We will use that to make an informed decision about how they really feel about his chances. Like Johnson, Newman is a veteran who rarely makes mistakes on the track and should be able to improve as the race progresses. Newman started the week at +8000, but apparently the betting slips were unimpressive enough to cause the lines’ makers to sweeten the deal. That has not diminished his talent, however, and he should be able to finish somewhere near his starting position of 14th. 

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