The 2022 FIFA World Cup is right around the corner, and we have all of our best bets and model plays right here for you to enjoy. In this article, we'll go over what we see as the most valuable bets to make at the group stage, and who we think is most likely to come out of it as the winner. The Sportsbook number and our numbers differ, so we'll give you the answers as to where they could have gotten it wrong.
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Group D: France -250
There is no question that France is going to be one of the best teams in the world when this thing gets going, with several superstars on their team that should be lighting up the scoreboard. Obviously, Mbappe is going to get his, and he is a big reason why this team should surge through their group and into the playoff. Right now, sportsbooks have them listed at -250 to win this group and advance to the playoff. While that is obviously a steep number to be placing any wager on, we believe that even a number as large as that is way short of what it should be.
We have them with a 94.4% chance to win the group. This number indicates a 71.4% chance, which is a massive 23% difference between our model to what the sportsbooks are offering.
The competition in this group is very weak relative to France, with Australia, Denmark, and Tunisia as the other three teams. The French should be ecstatic with this draw, as if Argentina wins Group C as they are projected to, that leaves them with a winnable matchup in their first knockout phase game against either Mexico or Poland. France is also currently sitting at +550 to win the whole thing, which is not a bad bet at all for the defending champions. They are tied with England at that number, a team that they very well could play should they advance to the quarterfinals. The only team that is ahead of them is Brazil, who is the +400 favorite to win the World Cup.
We consider France to be easily the best team in Group D, and at -250, a great value. They should be closer to -400 according to our model, with Denmark easily being their biggest competition in the group.
Don't overthink this one and take France to come out of Group D. For a full list of odds on who will win the World Cup, see our other article here. We also have a list of all our best value plays in each group, here.