2021 WGC-Workday Championship Picks, Odds, Tips, Info & Times
This year, the event will be played at The Concession Golf Club in Bradenton, Florida
Before jumping into this week’s tournament, I wanted to give a shoutout to Max Homa for taking it down last weekend! Hitting that Homa outright at +7000 was an amazing feeling. The 18th hole where he hit that shot then subsequently missed the putt, the playoff, the shot he hit off of the tree, all of it was incredible. Gambling wise, it was a sweat all the way until the end, but that was just fun to watch as a golf fan.
Anyways, those ups and downs are what makes golf betting so exciting, and why I’ve become hooked. We’ve hit the outright winner on back-to-back weeks with Homa and Daniel Berger, so let’s see if we can keep this rolling.
We shift our sights on the WGC-Workday Championship. This year presents a unique situation because normally this tournament would be played in Mexico. But, due to the pandemic and travel restrictions, the PGA TOUR moved it to Florida.
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As for the course, it will be played at The Concession Golf Club, which is a Jack Nicklaus-Tony Jacklin co-design with Bermudagrass greens. We’re looking at a 7,474-yard Par 72 layout this week.
Dustin Johnson comes in as the favorite to win it all at +600.
As for my betting picks, nothing groundbreaking here, but aside from digging into the data, I try to look for guys that have had past success at the particular course, value, and players that are trending in the right direction coming into the event.
Since this is the first time playing here for many, past history is kind of out the door for most of the field. I tried to look for guys that are playing well and like putting on Bermudagrass.
Let’s dig in!
2021 WGC-Workday Championship Details
Dates: February 25-28
Course: The Concession Golf Club located in Bradenton, Florida
Watch: GOLF/ CBS
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Picks to win
Bryson DeChambeau +1850
If there is one guy who can have success on this Frankenstein of a course, it is DeChambeau. And, with him missing the cut last week, there is some value here. I also love that he won the 2015 NCAA Championship here. I know it will be an overused narrative this week, but that is something I always look for when trying to pick outrights, like with Homa last week. I like that he has that little edge over most of the field with this being the first event played at The Concession.
Metrics wise, he ranks second this season with 2.32 Strokes Gained/Tee-to-Green per round, per the RickRunGood.com database.
I have a feeling he will be able to put it together this weekend. If he does, at +1850, this is a steal.
Patrick Cantlay +1600
I really think a big name is going to win this tournament and if you are looking for consistency, this is your man. In the nine events he’s played this year, he has finished 1, 2, 3, and in the Top-10 a total of four times. I like the odds here for a player of his caliber, as DJ and Jon Rahm were a little too chalky. Even though Cantlay was not super sharp last weekend and left strokes out there, he still finished T-15.
It looks like to win at The Concession you will need the total package of skills, which is precisely what Cantlay has. He’s super consistent and ranks in the Top-50 of all four Strokes Gained categories.
Viktor Hovland +2200
Hovland is an elite ball-striker and is quietly playing some amazing golf. Last weekend he finished T-5 while leading the field in Strokes Gained/ Off the Tee.
He won the Mayakoba in December of last year, finished second at the Famers and fifth last weekend at the Genesis. He will be in the mix come Sunday, so I like him at 22-1.
Longshots
Sungjae Im +4000
There is something about Florida for Im. He’s had four Top-5 finishes in the state over the last two years, including a win at the 2020 Honda Classic and a T-5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational the year after.
He also loves putting on Bermudagrass greens, as he ranks 10th in putting on this surface. Im has gained 0.44 strokes per round on Bermuda since the start of the 2019 season.
At these odds, he is definitely worth a stab.
Props
Ryan Palmer Top-20 +150
I like to find guys who are consistently making cuts and finishing in the Top-20 at a consistent rate when it comes to this bet. Palmer fits the bill here, as he has four Top-20 finishes in his past six starts and six Top-10s in the past twelve months. I watched him play great at Torrey Pines, where he finished T-2.
Palmer also has 1.47 Strokes Gained over his last eight rounds, per the RickRunGood.com database. At +150, I like this bet.
Lastly, I’m rooting for Tony Finau after last weekend. He is a stud and has been knocking on the door for sometime now. He is definitely going to break through. Just in case he does, I’ll have a sprinkle on his outright at +2000. This is more of a sentimental bet, so isn’t up top with my favorites.
As always, make sure you shop around for the best lines. Good luck and let’s make some money.
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
