Week 14 NCAAF Sharp Report

College football line movement, sharp bets and heavy public favorites for Week 14

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It's hard to keep up with all the action on Saturdays with so many teams playing all at once, and even harder to sort through all the games to find some great value on the board. The good news is, you don't have to if you're a BetQL subscriber.

Not only do we feature our model's best bets in expert articles, but we also have live data tracking what the public is betting, what the sharps are betting and how the lines are moving. When you subscribe to BetQL, you'll gain access to all of that real-time data, as well as the best bets and key trends for every game based on those live lines.

Let's take a look at some of the data from the games below as we give you a sneak preview BetQL's helpful tools. You can also take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of today's best bets, plus what the model is picking for all sports, including NFL Week 13. Start your free trial today!

Note: data presented below was found on BetQL.com as of 6:00pm EST on Thursday, December 1, 2022. Subject to change.

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Line Movement: North Texas vs. No. 23 UTSA

This is one of the key games in Week 14 where we have seen some significant line movement from the opening number. North Texas and UTSA will battle it out in the Conference USA Championship, and we have seen the total budge in the northern direction. It opened at a robust 66.5 before jumping up three points, where it now sits at a whopping 69.5. Nice, and it may continue to climb even further in a game where defense might be optional.

It's worth noting that North Texas is 7-5 to the O/U this season while UTSA is 7-5 to the O/U as well. Both are certainly over teams.

What this all means is books have seen a massive influx of cash coming in on the OVER. You can clearly see this on our "Line Movement" page of our website, which will show you the difference between the opening line and current number. BetQL's lines change immediately when the sportsbooks change theirs, so you can always count on us to have the most updated number.

See our model's best bets for this game below and be sure to check out all line movement data for this week's slate of games!

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Sharp Money: No. 22 UCF vs. No. 18 Tulane

The Knights will be heading to New Orleans to take on the Green Wave in a rematch of a game that took place just a few weeks ago, but now weighs for far higher stakes in the American Athletic Championship. The game is predicted to be a close affair, with the spread at -4 for Tulane. That may not even be enough if you trust the sharp bettors. The smart folks are loving the favorite in this game, and maybe there is some value to be had here at the current number with the Green Wave.

At the time of this writing, 31% of tickets are backing UCF to cover as the +4 underdog, but just 13% of the money is backing those tickets. A whopping 87% of the total money is backing Tulane versus the spread, and 69% of tickets. That's an 18% difference between the total money wagered on Tulane and the total ticket percentage, a clear sharp bet. This is a big spread, but the big spenders are loving the Green Wave to take the AAC.

This data is available for every game of the slate for BetQL subscribers, so they always know which bet the high-rollers are backing. Compare this with our best bets for this game below.

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Public Bets: No. 12 Utah vs. No. 4 USC

Yep, you probably could have guessed this one, but the public are all over the Trojans to lock up the Pac-12 and make the college football playoff for the first time. Not surprising at all, considering they are the No. 4 ranked team in the country. Everyone is going to want to hammer them.

Taking a look at our data, a huge 74% of the tickets are on USC -2.5, so pretty much everyone is betting on the Trojans to beat the Utes by at least three to cover the spread.

Betting against the public can be a smart strategy, though, when it creates value on the opposite side. It doesn't always pan out, so you always have to be mindful of how you're factoring in this data, but BetQL will help you make these decisions with our model projections and analysis. Find out if our model is aligned with the public.

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Take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of today's best bets, plus what the model is projecting for NFL Week 13! Start your free trial today!