UCLA Has The Edge In A Presumed Shootout Against Oregon State

Oregon State at UCLA (-6)

Saturday October 5th, 2019

Rose Bowl, 9:00pm EST 

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• BetQL’s NCAA Football Model lists UCLA (-6) as a ★ ★ ★ ★ bet against Oregon State in Week 6 and lists the Bruins’ -235 moneyline as a ★ ★ ★ bet. 

• The algorithm also believes this will be a high-scoring affair, labeling both the 33.1-point first-half over and 65.5-point game total as ★ ★ ★ bets. 

• Oregon State (1-3) is 1-3 ATS and two of their four games have gone over the total.

• UCLA (1-4) is 1-3-1 ATS and one of their five games has gone over the total. 

• Chip Kelly is 13-2 in his career against mistake-prone teams who give up 60+ penalty yards per game. The Beavers average 65.8 penalty yards per game. 

Oregon State’s Offense Against UCLA’s Defense

Oregon State may be 1-3, but their two most recent losses were by three points each. After being taken down by a ranked Oklahoma State team 52-36 to start the season, the Beavers lost 31-28 on the road against Hawaii before returning home to trounce Cal Poly 45-7 in Week 3. After a bye week, the group returned to action in Week 5, but were defeated by a struggling Stanford squad to the tune of 31-28 in Corvallis. 

Oregon State has averaged 30.7 points per game so far this season while UCLA has surrendered 35.6 points per contest.

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Senior quarterback Jake Luton has been sensational. The 6’7” field general has completed 60.7 percent of his passes and has accounted for 1,012 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions through four games. A majority of those yards have gone to junior wideout Isaiah Hodgins, who is establishing himself as a viable NFL prospect. Hodgins has a remarkable 33 receptions, 509 receiving yards and six touchdowns so far. No other Beaver has more than 12 receptions and only one other (Champ Flemings, 222 yards) has over 85 yards receiving. 

Therefore, expect the UCLA defense to key in on Hodgins and to send help underneath or over the top as much as humanly possible. If they can limit his production, they will most likely come out victorious. 

Artavis Pierce (363 yards, four touchdowns), Jermar Jefferson (287 yards, touchdown) and B.J. Baylor (124 yards, two touchdowns) have made up an impressive rushing attack that has amassed 852 total yards and nine touchdowns on 5.8 yards per carry. 

UCLA’s Offense Against Oregon State’s Defense 

UCLA’s performance this season can be summed up in four words: consistent with one outlier. That outlier was a 67-63 shootout victory on the road in Washington State. That was also their only win of the year so far. They’ve been consistent in losses, scoring exactly 14 points three-straight times to start the season (a 24-14 loss to Cincinnati in Week 1, falling 23-14 to San Diego State in Week 3 and then 48-14 to Oklahoma in Week 3). They scored 17 against Arizona in last week’s loss and sit at a sad 1-4 mark. 

However, there are some reasons to like the Bruins in this matchup. Oregon State has surrendered 38.0 points per contest. That’s a start.

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Despite playing only four games so far, Oregon State has given away 263 penalty yards to opposing teams (65.75 per game - 101st). Expect Kelly’s up-tempo style of offense to capitalize on OSU’s lack of discipline. The coach is 13-2 in his career against mistake-prone teams who give up 60+ penalty yards per contest.

A major positive over the last two weeks has been the re-emergence of senior running back Joshua Kelly. After entering the season banged up, Kelly rushed 20 times for 90 yards in the win over Washington State and then 27 times for 127 yards and a touchdown against Arizona. Entering 2019 as a Heisman Trophy dark-horse, he will undoubtedly be relied upon moving forward, especially if Dorian Thompson-Robinson (leg) misses this game.

Oregon State ranks 101st out of 130 FBS teams in rushing yards allowed per game (180.5).

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DTR remained out of practice in the middle of the week and is questionable to play on Saturday. As seen in his incredible comeback victory over Washington State a couple weeks ago, he can be explosive. The only problem is that he’s been remarkably inconsistent all season long. 

Sophomore quarterback Austin Burton entered last game for the injured first-stringer and went 5-of-9 for 48 yards, setting up a game-tying 39-yard field goal against Arizona. Unfortunately, that kick sailed wide of the crossbar, but Burton showed some promise and, by all accounts, is highly-regarded within the program.

Fellow running back Demetric Felton has rushed for 196 yards, but is also the team’s leading receiver (22 catches for 342 yards and three touchdowns). He leads the team in all three of those categories and is a staple in Chip Kelly’s design.

What BetQL’s Model Says 

• BetQL’s NCAA Football Model lists UCLA (-6) as a ★ ★ ★ ★ bet against Oregon State in Week 6 and lists the Bruins’ -235 moneyline as a ★ ★ ★ bet. Led by Joshua Kelly, the Bruins should put up a lot of points against a vulnerable defense.

• The algorithm also believes this will be a high-scoring affair, labeling both the 33.1-point first-half over and 65.5-point game total as ★ ★ ★ bets. Both defenses have struggled so far and both offenses have the potential to put up video-game-like numbers. Expect a shootout and for the Bruins to earn their second victory of the season by seven-plus points.