5-Star Review: SMU-North Texas Week 3
The over of 71.5 points was a cool 5-star bet that hit prior to the 4th quarter starting
Quick-Hitters
- The BetQL model listed a 5-star rating in favor of over 71.5 points between the SMU Mustangs and the North Texas Mean Green, and the prediction couldn't have been more accurate.
- After SMU jumped out to a 24-0 lead early in the second quarter, the game became a shootout, passing the 71.5 point mark before the end of the third quarter.
- Both teams showed offensive prowess in their season-opener, as SMU scored 31 points against Texas State while North Green put 57 points on the board against Houston Baptist.
- SMU and North Texas were also suspect defensively in their season-opener, as North Texas gave up 31 points against Houston Baptist while SMU allowed 24 points against Texas State.
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A Zealous Over/Under
Even with an ambitious over/under of 71.5 points in the SMU-North Texas game, the BetQL model was a big fan of the over. Things were a little uneasy after SMU jumped out to a 24-0 lead early in the second quarter. It’s usually a bad sign for the over when one team goes scoreless in the first quarter. However, the North Texas offense got it going and forced a little bit of a shootout in the second half. With the SMU offense being close to unstoppable for most of the game, a 55-21 score at the end of the third quarter solidified BetQL's pick of the over with 15 minutes left in the game. Ultimately, the score finished at 65-35 in SMU’s favor.
Offensive Prowess
The BetQL model knew that both teams were capable of scoring points. Despite a slow start against SMU, the Mean Green offense posted 57 points in their season-opener against FCS opponent Houston Baptist. All three North Texas quarterbacks who played in that game had success, so it was just a matter of time until the Mean Green got going offensively. Meanwhile, the reputation of SMU quarterback Shane Buechele precedes him. The Texas transfer is arguably the best quarterback in the country outside of the power conferences. Even with a modest performance that included two interceptions in the season-opener against Texas State, it was always a safe bet that Buechele would get the SMU offense humming, allowing the Mustangs to put up more than their fair share of the 72 points needed to hit the over.
Defensive Troubles
In addition to both teams having talented offenses, the BetQL model also knows that both defenses are still trying to replace five key starters from last season. That made both sides a little vulnerable defensively, which steered our model toward the over. The Mean Green, in particular, had questions on defense after allowing 31 points against FCS opponent Houston Baptist in their season-opener. If an FCS team can do that kind of damage, it was a given that Buechele and the Mustangs could go wild against North Texas, as the 65 points they posted came close to the hitting the over on their own.
