Sun Belt Championship: App State vs. #20 Louisiana Odds, Best Bets, Prediction

Sun Belt Championship Game Preview

This year’s Sun Belt Championship Game brings together two familiar foes, as the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns will take on the Appalachian State Mountaineers. These two teams met in both the 2018 and 2019 Sun Belt title games with App State winning both games on its home field. But the Ragin’ Cajuns returned the favor with a 41-13 win earlier this season. Louisiana has also earned the right to host this year’s Sun Belt Championship Game, giving them a chance to repeat as Sun Belt champs after sharing the honor last year when the title game was canceled. However, the Mountaineers are listed as three-point road favorites for this game with an over/under of 53 points.

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns Preview

The Ragin’ Cajuns are just one loss to Texas away from an undefeated season. Louisiana lost its season opener to the Longhorns but has been unbeaten since. That being said, six of Louisiana’s wins came by one score, so it’s not like the Ragin’ Cajuns have dominated every team they’ve faced. But they’ve found ways to win close games, helping them run away with the West Division and get back to the Sun Belt Championship Game.

Super-senior quarterback Levi Lewis has helped pave the way for the Ragin’ Cajuns. He hasn’t posted eye-popping numbers, but he’s limited his mistakes, throwing just four interceptions this season. His experience and mobility have helped to keep the Louisiana offense moving, allowing the running game to do most of the damage. The trio of Chris Smith, Montrell Johnson, and Emani Bailey are all averaging over five yards per carry, giving opponents three different backs to worry about and making Louisiana one of the best rushing teams in the country.

At the same time, the Louisiana defense has been good all year, making sure that the Ragin’ Cajuns don’t need to be that explosive offensively. Over their last 10 games, only one team has managed to score more than 21 points against Louisiana, which has made it easier for the Ragin’ Cajuns to win close games. During the earlier matchup with Appalachian State, the Louisiana defense forced four turnovers and allowed just 211 total yards. They dominated in all aspects of that game and had similar success against most of their Sun Belt opponents this season.

Appalachian State Mountaineers Preview

Like Louisiana, the Mountaineers have put together an impressive season. They nearly pulled off an upset over Miami earlier in the season, losing 25-23. That lopsided loss to the Ragin’ Cajuns is App State’s only other blemish in 2021. But since that loss, the Mountaineers have been on a roll. They bounced back to beat Coastal Carolina the following week and have now won six straight games, including a win over Georgia Southern last week to secure a spot in the Sun Belt title game.

The 13-point output against Louisiana looks like an aberration for the Appalachian State offense. That was just one of three games this season that the Mountaineers failed to score at least 30 points. As we’ve seen in past years, the Mountaineers have a strong rushing attack with both Nate Noel and Cameron Peoples averaging more than five yards per carry. At the same time, Clemson and Duke transfer Chase Brice has given App State a quarterback with high-major arm talent. Brice has gotten into a little trouble this year with 10 interceptions, two of which came in the loss to Louisiana. But he’s capable of pushing the ball down the field and has three productive receivers at his disposal who all have over 700 receiving yards this year, helping the Mountaineers to average more than 36 points per game.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Mountaineers have been nearly as good, yielding less than 19 points per game. They’ve held seven of their 12 opponents below 20 points with their last three opponents combining for just 17 total points. While the defensive line has been solid, it’s the linebacker tandem of D’Marco Jackson and Nick Hampton that’s made a difference for the Mountaineers. They’ve combined for 13 sacks, which has also helped the Mountaineers to average nearly two takeaways per game, including 15 interceptions.

Sun Belt Championship Game Prediction

It should be clear that this is not the same Appalachian State team that lost to Louisiana earlier this season. The Mountaineers have been dominant defensively late in the season and are capable of playing much better offensively than they did in that loss to the Ragin’ Cajuns. But that doesn’t mean the Mountaineers deserve to be favorites in this game. Louisiana is just as good defensively and has a balanced offensive attack. With the home crowd behind them, that should be enough for the Ragin’ Cajuns to finally knock off App State in the Sun Belt Championship Game.

Click the button below to see our model’s best bets for this game and the entire college football slate!