First things first, I’m going to sprinkle some on Utah State’s +185 moneyline. They’ve gone 3-0 (+12.6 units) straight up as an outright underdog this season and have the firepower needed to earn a Mountain West Championship victory. With that being said, I obviously like them at +6 and view this as one of the safest conference championship bets. Not only has Utah State gone 8-4 ATS and have covered five of their last six games, but San Diego State has covered just once in their last five contests. Keep an eye on Utah State star wideout Deven Thompkins (87 receptions, 1,543 yards, 9 TD’s), who will look to make a statement in front of NFL scouts.
Wake and Pitt (-3) will meet up Saturday for the ACC Championship with the total set at an astonishingly high 71.5. BetQL is hammering that under, projecting 67 points in this matchup and rating under 71.5 as a 5-star play. BetQL has gone 63-44 (58.9%) on all college football total bets the past two weeks for a total return of $1,332 on $100 bets. Despite both teams' strong QBs and suspect defenses, it's hard to go against the model's recent success on these college football totals.
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This comes down to Bama just being more experienced in these situations, despite the ridiculously dominant Georgia defense the Tide has to deal with. Nick Saban is 19-5 ATS after failing to cover in 3 out of his last 4 games while coaching Alabama, showing that when his team goes through stretches of closer-than-expected games, Saban gets his guys ready. All we need is a cover here, and Alabama can do just that, with Bryce Young trying to secure that Heisman in his biggest game of the year.
I think Alabama is going to cover the spread in this one against Georgia as the underdog. Alabama is 6-6 ATS this season and they’re averaging 42.67 points scored per game to Georgia’s 40.67 points scored per game. Yes, Georgia has a perfect record, but Alabama has also won six of their last games, which isn’t too shabby. Against the spread, Nick Saban is 15-2 off two no-covers where the team won as a favorite. So I see Alabama covering here.
Nobody says a word about Houston, even after they put together an 11-win season. In fact, the Cougars are on a roll, and have won 11 straight since losing their opener to Texas Tech. They have plenty of talent and momentum to boot, enough to give Cincinnati everything they can handle. If they take this game, heads will spin as a team no one talked about heads to a possible New Year’s Six bowl game. Houston didn’t beat a single power-5 team all season, unlike the Bearcats who defeated Notre Dame earlier in the year. Still, Houston is much better than most teams Cincy has faced. They have an explosive offense that can put up points in a hurry, and easily the best defense QB Desmond Ridder has faced since the Irish. Ridder struggled against ND, so it will be interesting to see how he fares against another good defense. Houston plays fast and aggressive and the Cougars have allowed less than 100 yards rushing in six of their last eight games. They have a massive defensive front that stops the run, and they also have one of the nation’s top teams when it comes to takeaways. They led the AAC in turnover differential, which is bad news for a Bearcats team that has turned the ball over in bunches (three turnovers in three of their last four games). Therefore, +11.5 is way too many points here. I expect this to be very close, perhaps even an upset. Love the Cougs.