Week 4 College Football Player Prop Values

Heading into Week 4, the contenders and pretenders are beginning to separate themselves in college football and BetQL is your source for best bets, live sharp and public data, projections and so much more for each and every game. While NFL player props get a ton of attention week after week, there are significant edges that you can find in the college football player prop markets. Below, I’ll go through three of my favorite plays for the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.

Taulia Tagovailoa Under 273.5 Passing Yards

MARYLAND AT MICHIGAN (-17), O/U 65

Heading into this game against Michigan, Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has led the Terrapins to three consecutive victories over Buffalo, Charlotte and SMU while averaging 298.3 passing yards per contest. Against the lesser competition, he completed 77.3% of his passes for six touchdowns and two interceptions, but now will face a major test against Michigan’s pass defense. 

The Wolverines have an A+ defensive grade in our model and rank 3rd in Division-I with just 91.3 passing yards allowed per game. Not only that, but after we simulated this game 10,000 times, Tagovailoa averaged 192 passing yards in Maryland wins and 171 passing yards in losses. So, regardless of the outcome, the data does not suggest that he will even sniff this 273.5 number. Last year, Michigan went into Maryland, won 59-18 and Tua’s younger brother went 18-33 for 178 yards, a touchdown and an interception. A similar result wouldn’t shock me here.

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Braelon Allen Under 87.5 Rushing Yards

WISCONSIN AT OHIO STATE (-18.5), O/U 57

Unsurprisingly, Wisconsin running back Braelon Allen has gotten off to a hot start, amassing 332 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 50 carries through three games. However, two of those contests came against Illinois State and New Mexico State. It’s safe to say that this Ohio State defense is going to be just a tad bit better than those schools. 

The Buckeyes rank 16th in Division-I in terms of rushing yards allowed per game (84.3), including just 76 to Notre Dame in their season opener, and feature a number of future NFL caliber guys in their front seven. As substantial underdogs, it’s tough to envision Wisconsin electing to run the football over and over in this matchup and I expect them to get out of their comfort zone, which should hurt Allen’s chances of going over this 87.5 number. 

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Jordan Addison Over 90.5 Receiving Yards

USC (-6) AT OREGON STATE, O/U 71

Last year's Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison is making his mark as USC’s top wide receiver. Through three contests, he has caught 18 passes for 295 yards and five touchdowns, but those numbers could have been doubled if he was involved in close games. Easily thriving in Lincoln Riley’s offense, Addison should finally be in a tight game this week after the Trojans won 66-14, 41-28 and 45-17 in the first three contests, which essentially didn’t require any more of his production in the passing game.

USC is favored by a touchdown at Oregon State, a quality team, and should be involved from start to finish. The Beavers rank 98th in Division-I pass defense and have allowed 272.5 passing yards per game, so I expect Addison to perform at a dominant level in this spot and easily get over the 90.5 receiving yards mark. Would you be shocked if he approached 200? I wouldn't.

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