Pac-12 Championship: Oregon Seeks Revenge vs. Utah

#10 Oregon Ducks

In a rematch of the blowout a couple of weeks ago between these same two teams, Oregon will look to get revenge on Utah when they meet in the PAC-12 Championship Friday. Oregon has won the conference championship the previous two seasons, but this may be a different tale. They suffered a blowout, 38-7 loss to Utah just a few weeks ago. Oregon bounced back last week in the “Civil War” game against Oregon State, 38-29.

Still, that really wasn't an impressive win against a lesser team. Nobody is going to be convinced they should back Oregon based on what they have seen in recent weeks. The Ducks are even +2.5 underdogs in this game as the higher-ranked team. The good news for them is that they are 4-2 ATS in their last six games, and 8-4 SU against Utah in their last 12 against the Utes, according to our BetQL model.

The Ducks were in the college football playoff top four before getting absolutely embarrassed by the Utes. Their special teams unit was just awful in that game, missing two field goals and allowing multiple huge punt returns that really put them in bad positions and left points on the board. The Oregon defense couldn't stop Utah when they faced third down, allowing the Utes to convert 11 of 14 opportunities. That left the Ducks defense tired and exhausted, and they could not stop the Utah offense.

Speaking of offense, they had very little to speak of in that game. The rushing attack had a mere 63 yards combined on 23 carries. Anthony Brown and Travis Dye were completely shut down by the Utes defense after being electric all season long for Oregon. They really have been reeling since that game. Brown is a dual-threat QB but had just 8 yards on nine carries in the game, and just 231 passing yards with a TD. Dye, who averages 5.8 yards per carry, had just 29 yards against Utah on six carries.

If Oregon wants to claim its third straight conference championship, it needs to get these guys going, and they need to play much better than they did last time out.

#17 Utah Utes

Utah is playing some of its best football in years coming into this game against the Ducks. They are riding a five-game win streak into this game after crushing Colorado 28-10. Against Oregon a couple of weeks ago, it really would be hard for you to ask a team to play a better football game than Utah did. It was a near-perfect performance they executed against the Ducks, who had zero answers on how to counter their strategy. All Utah has to do is play like they did that night, and they will be hoisting their first Pac-12 Championship in program history. Obviously, the Ducks most likely won't be that bad in this game, but they certainly have a lot more issues right now than the Utes do.

Utah is led by QB Cameron Rising, who has 2,109 passing yards and 17 touchdowns this season. He's not exactly Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud, but he gets the job done. Perhaps the best part of his game is that he doesn't turn the ball over very much at all. He has just three interceptions all year, which ranks second in the nation among qualifying QBs.

After their last meeting, it's not surprising that Utah is favored -2.5 in this game even as the lower-ranked team. According to our BetQL model, Utah is 8-1 SU in their last nine games and 5-0 SU in their last five games against Pac-12 opponents. They are one of the hottest teams in college football.

Prediction

I just don't like the way Oregon is playing right now. Something has broken on that team, and it is easy to tell that they aren't the same group that was ranked No. 3 in the nation. If the loss to Utah had happened earlier, perhaps it wouldn't weigh so largely on many bettors' minds, but it has only been a few weeks. The Ducks are more talented, but Utah is the hotter team coming in, and they are playing with passion right now. Oregon looks like a team that is running out of gas.

I'll take Utah to win their first conference championship as -2.5 favorites.

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