Oregon Will Look To Spoil Utah's CFP Hopes In The Pac-12 Championship
These two teams are more similar than you might expect
#13 Oregon (10-2) at #5 Utah (11-1)
Pac-12 Championship, Friday December 6th, 8:00pm EST
UTAH -6.5, O/U 47 VIEW GAME PAGE
- The #13 Oregon Ducks will take on the #5 Utah Utes at Levi’s Stadium in the Pac-12 Championship on Friday night.
- The Ducks are coming off a 24-10 victory over Oregon State and have gone 6-6 ATS this season. The over has gone 5-7 in their games.
- The Utes are coming off a 45-15 win over Colorado and have gone 9-3 ATS this year. They’ve won and covered each of their last eight contests. The over has gone just 3-8 in their games.
- Utah is listed as a 6.5-point favorite and the over/under is listed at 47 points. BetQL’s NCAAF Model lists a best bet ATS, on the moneyline and on the total in this contest. Find out what they are!
After dropping their season-opener to Auburn, the only loss that Oregon suffered was against Arizona State back on November 23rd (31-28). Utah easily took down the Sun Devils 21-3 back on October 19th, but it’s not necessarily wise to instantly write the Ducks off. After all, their offense is led by potential first-round draft pick Justin Herbert. The senior quarterback amassed 3,140 yards, 32 total touchdowns (one rushing) and only threw five interceptions this season. Herbert has spread the ball around and hasn't solely relied on one primary target (as evidenced by the fact that 10 different Ducks have over 124 receiving yards and six have multiple receiving touchdowns), Oregon’s offense has been clicking all year. CJ Verdell and Travis Dye have led the ground attack and as a team, the Ducks have rushed for 2,143 yards on 4.9 yards per carry and have found the end zone 20 times.
It could be tough sledding for Herbert and Oregon’s offense in this matchup, even though they rank 16th in the nation in scoring (35.8 points per game). Utah’s defense is one of the best in the entire country and has allowed 56.3 rushing yards, 241.6 total yards and 11.3 points per game, all of which rank in the top three out of 130 FBS schools.
Here are some trends to consider heading into this matchup, all of which favor the Utes:
- In their last 18 games immediately following a three-game streak of allowing 125 or less rushing yards, Utah has gone 16-2 SU and in their last 25 games in that scenario, they’ve gone 22-3 ATS.
- In their last 56 games when the total is between 42.5 and 49, the Utes have gone 44-12 SU.
- In their last 29 games after covering as a double-digit favorite, Utah has gone 23-6 SU.
- The Utes are 8-0 ATS this season after playing a Pac-12 game.
One of the major reasons for Utah’s success this year has been the fact that they consistently control the clock due to their solid running game on offense and stifling defense that consistently forces turnovers and three-and-outs. The Utes rank second in the country in average time of possession (34 minutes per game). Utah’s offense ranks 18th in the country, averaging 35.6 points per game, and have relied heavily on two offensive players: quarterback Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss. Huntley has thrown for 2,773 yards along with 21 touchdowns (five rushing) and two interceptions while Moss has accumulated 1,246 rushing yards on 6.2 yards per carry with 15 touchdowns. He also ranks fourth on the team in receiving, with 317 yards and an additional score. Like Herbert, Huntley has consistently spread the ball around to his receivers. Ten different Utes have double-digit receptions, nine have over 100 receiving yards and eight have had a receiving touchdown.
Points might not be easy to come by against this Ducks defense, though. They rank 10th in the FBS in points per game allowed (15.8) and are a dominant unit overall, surrendering 331.3 total yards per game (24th).
As you can see, these two teams are pretty similar. Utah is listed as a 6.5-point favorite and the over/under is listed at 47 points. BetQL’s NCAAF Model lists a best bet ATS, on the moneyline and on the total in this contest. Find out what they are!