MWC Championship: #19 San Diego State vs. Utah State Odds, Best Bets, Prediction

MWC Championship Preview

There is some new blood in this year’s Mountain West Championship Game between the San Diego State Aztecs and the Utah State Aggies. Surprisingly, the Aztecs haven’t played for a conference championship since 2016 while the Aggies are making their first appearance since 2013. These two teams didn’t play this year but split their meetings over the past two seasons with the road team winning each game. On Saturday, the Aztecs will be playing at home as six-point favorites with the over/under set at 50 points.

San Diego State Aztecs Preview

With so many teams outside of the power conferences making waves this year, the 11-1 Aztecs have flown under the radar a little. San Diego State beat two Pac-12 teams this year, including Utah, so there should be no doubt that the Aztecs are for real. Outside of a loss to Fresno State, the Aztecs are unbeaten this season and knocked off Boise State last week to secure a spot in the Mountain West Championship Game.

As usual, the San Diego State defense has been one of the best in the country. The Aztecs rank top-10 nationally in scoring defense, conceding just 17.3 points per game. Only two teams have managed to score more than 21 points against San Diego State this year, so the Aztecs have been stingy. The likes of Cameron Thomas and Jonah Tavai have dominated at the line of scrimmage, combining for 17 of the team’s 36 sacks. The Aztecs have also done a great job of creating takeaways this season, amassing 15 interceptions in 12 games.

On the other side of the ball, the Aztecs have been subpar offensively. San Diego State typically has one of the better rushing attacks in the Mountain West, although the Aztecs are averaging a modest 4.4 yards per carry on the season with lead back Greg Bell falling short of the 1,000-yard threshold through 12 games. Things are even worse at the quarterback position despite Georgia Tech transfer Lucas Johnson providing some stability during the latter part of the season. Johnson is only averaging 5.8 yards per pass on the season and threw for less than 100 yards against a solid Boise State defense last week. That limits what the Aztecs can do offensively, which is why they only averaged 27.8 points per game despite being 11-1.

Utah State Aggies Preview

As mentioned, this is largely uncharted territory for the Aggies, who haven’t been to the Mountain West title game since 2013. They lost back-to-back games to Boise State and BYU earlier in the season and had a puzzling loss to Wyoming two weeks ago. However, Utah State bounced back with a win over New Mexico last week, giving them the Mountain Division title and getting them back to the conference championship game.

Unlike the Aztecs, Utah State has been led by its offense this season. Quarterback Logan Bonner transferred from Arkansas State and has had a big season, throwing for over 3,200 yards and 32 touchdowns despite only completing 60% of his passes. Deven Thompkins has been one of the best wide receivers in the Mountain West, although Derek Wright and Brandon Bowling are also threats who combined for 17 touchdown catches. Meanwhile, the Aggies don’t have a great rushing attack, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. But Utah State usually stays committed to the run, so they don’t become one-dimensional.

Defensively, it’s been a mixed bag for the Aggies. Just two weeks ago, they allowed 44 points and over 600 total yards against a terrible Wyoming offense. It was the fifth time this year that Utah State allowed over 31 points in a game. But outside of the Wyoming game, Utah State has held three of its last four opponents to 17 points or less. The Aggies have done a nice job of creating turnovers, but with just 24 sacks in 12 games, their pass rush is lacking, which can get them into trouble at times.

MWC Championship Game Prediction

This game will likely come down to how effective the Utah State offense can be against a San Diego State defense that’s been tough to play against all season. Questions about the Utah State defense also open the door for the San Diego State offense to move the ball better than they have for most of the season. But if the Aggies can’t find a way to score points against a stingy defense, the Aztecs should be able to win by at least a touchdown.

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