MAC Championship: Kent State vs. N. Illinois Odds, Best Bets, Prediction

MAC Championship Preview

It might not be the biggest game of the weekend but the MAC Championship Game is usually one of the most entertaining games of championship weekend. This year, the Kent State Golden Flashes will take on the Northern Illinois Huskies at Ford Field in Detroit with the MAC title on the line. These two teams met earlier this year with Kent State pulling off a 52-47 win. That likely explains why the Golden Flashes are three-point favorites in the MAC Championship Game with the over/under listed at 74.5 points.

Northern Illinois Huskies Preview

The Huskies had to endure a winless campaign during a shortened 2020 season, finishing 0-6. But NIU has bounced back quickly and has a chance to win a second MAC championship in the last four years. Coming off last year’s disaster, the Huskies opened the season with a win over Georgia Tech and proceeded to go 6-2 in MAC play, winning a competitive West Division.

The caveat is that Northern Illinois lost 42-21 to Western Michigan last week, albeit in a meaningless game. The bigger problem is that they lost with quarterback Rocky Lombardi out due to an injury. Lombardi’s status remains up in the air for this week. Backup Ethan Hampton completed just four of his 10 passes for 23 yards last week, so while Lombardi hasn’t been exceptional this season, there’s clearly a huge drop-off if Hampton has to play. The silver lining is the Huskies rank fifth nationally in rushing yards. NIU uses a trio of running backs that have helped the Huskies average better than five yards per carry this season. The NIU offense isn’t completely inept without Lombardi, but it’s important for the Huskies that he be able to play this week.

The Huskies can’t necessarily rely on their defense to win games, which is why they need their offense to be at its best. Northern Illinois has conceded at least 27 points in five straight games, including the 52 points that Kent State scored against them and the 42 points they gave up last week to Western Michigan. The Huskies were shredded on both the ground and through the air in that game, so the NIU defense isn’t in a good place right now and could be lacking confidence heading into a championship game.

Kent State Golden Flashes Preview

While NIU lost last week, the Golden Flashes are on a high after an overtime win over Miami (Ohio) last week that decided the MAC East Division winner. Kent State’s defense stopped a two-point conversion attempt to overtime to seal a 48-47 win. With that, the Golden Flashes are going to the MAC title game for the first time since 2012 when they lost in double overtime to Northern Illinois. With a win, Kent State can win its second conference championship in program history with the only one coming in 1972.

Despite the Kent State defense making the game-winning play last week, the Golden Flashes have struggled on that side of the ball this year. They’ve allowed 34.6 points per game, and that includes a shutout win over Akron two weeks ago. In fairness, the Golden Flashes played the likes of Texas A&M, Iowa, and Maryland early in the season, which hurt their defensive numbers. However, they also gave up 38 points or more in five of their eight conference games, including four games in which they gave up 47 points or more.

The silver lining is that the Kent State offense is used to carrying the team and has been able to do so more times than not. In fact, the Golden Flashes have the third-most rushing yards in the country this year. Three players have rushed for more than 500 yards, including quarterback Dustin Crum and 1,000-yard rusher Marquez Cooper. Crum has also been a competent passer this season. The senior has completed 65% of his passes while averaging 8.4 yards per pass and limiting himself to just four interceptions. Again, the Golden Flashes played three power-conference opponents early in the season, including elite defensive teams like Texas A&M and Iowa. But Kent State still managed to average 33.4 points per game this season.

MAC Championship Game Prediction

While both teams have defensive questions heading into the MAC Championship Game, it’s clear that Kent State has the more balanced and explosive offense. On top of that, the Huskies aren’t sure if they’re going to have Lombardi or not. But even if Northern Illinois gets its starting quarterback back from injury, the Huskies could have a tough time keeping up with the Golden Flashes in what is bound to be a shootout.

Click the button below to see our model’s best bets for this game and the entire college football slate!