How Myles Brennan's Status Affects The LSU-Auburn Line

Quick-Hitters

• LSU and Auburn defenses have given up points this season. LSU has allowed 30.0 points per contest while Auburn has allowed 25.2 points per game.

• LSU ranks 11th nationally in scoring offense, averaging 42.0 points per game. Myles Brennan is likely to miss this contest.

• The under has gone 4-1 in Auburn's games while the over has gone 3-1 in LSU contests.

• LSU (-150) is favored by 3 points over Auburn (+130) with the over/under set at 66 total points. CLICK HERE FOR LIVE GAME ODDS!

Get all of BetQL's best bets for this week's NCAAF slate! Dating back a full calendar year, our five-star (max-value) bets have won 61% of the time!

Unranked Auburn

After five conference games against SEC opponents, the Auburn Tigers find themselves unranked in the Associated Press Poll. They've been all over the place, failing to string together back-to-back wins, but they're fresh off a 35-28 win at Ole Miss.

The under has gone 4-1 in Auburn games this season. Their new offensive coordinator, Chad Morris, has struggled to get the offense going. Auburn averages 24.4 points per game and 5.5 yards per play, ranking eighth in the SEC in both categories. Their running game, led by freshman running back Tank Bigsby, has been strong. They average 4.6 yards per rush, the fourth-best mark in the SEC. However, sophomore quarterback Bo Nix leads a passing attack that has had trouble moving the ball through the air. Auburn ranks 11th in the SEC in yards per attempt, averaging 6.4 yards per pass.

Defensively, the Tigers allow 25.2 points per game (third in the SEC). They rank fifth in the conference in yards allowed per play, giving up 5.4 yards per snap. The Tigers' defense ranks 12th in the conference in third down conversion percentage and 11th in defensive red zone touchdown percentage. This defense is sure to give up points.

LSU Games Result In High-Scoring Affairs

The defending National Champion LSU Tigers have had a great deal of upheaval since winning the title. Passing game coordinator Joe Brady left for the Carolina Panthers and defensive coordinator Dave Aranda left for the head coaching job at Baylor.

On the field, LSU’s roster was ravaged by departures with Joe Burrow leading the pack. Because of the turnover in terms of on-field talent and the brain drain of key parts of the coaching staff leaving for greener pastures, the 2020 Tigers have struggled to resemble their 2019 self. They opened the season with an embarrassing home loss to Mississippi State. New defensive coordinator Bo Pelini looked on as Mississippi State threw for over 600 yards on the LSU defense. The 44-34 loss was a sign that this team had some work to do.

Myles Brennan had played well in the first three games of the season, but he was sidelined with an injury. 6’6’, 242-pound freshman quarterback TJ Finley started for LSU versus South Carolina. Finley, who will likely start against Auburn, went 17-of-21 for 265 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 pick.

LSU is 2-2 straight up and ATS, with both outright wins serving as covers. The over has gone 3-1 in LSU games this season, with the only under coming in the Vanderbilt blowout that fell below the total by just two points. LSU ranks 11th nationally in scoring offense, averaging 42.0 points per game. They're third in the SEC in yards per play, gaining 6.5 yards per snap.

LSU’s offense is guided by their passing game which ranks 16th nationally and fourth in the conference at 9.1 yards per pass attempt. However, the Tigers have really had issues converting on third down this season. LSU ranks 81st in the nation in third down conversion percentage, gaining a first down on just 34.6 percent of third down attempts.

The big problem for LSU has been the defensive side of the ball. The Tigers have given up 30.0 points per contest. They rank 96th out of 101 active FCS teams in yards per play allowed (7.1 yards allowed per snap) and yards per pass attempt allowed (9.7 yards allowed per pass). This could aid in another over hitting.

Best Bet?

Auburn’s offense will have an edge against the LSU run defense with Bigsby averaging 5.8 yards per carry. If Nix can connect with wide outs Seth Williams and Anthony Schwartz as well, it'll be a very long day for the LSU defense. Also, Auburn must protect the football. Auburn has only turned it over four times, but LSU is one of the best teams in the SEC in terms of takeaways.

For LSU to win, they need another big game from TJ Finley. Against South Carolina, Finley had a quarterback rating of 93.9. If he can duplicate that kind of performance against Auburn, LSU will be in solid position to get the victory.

Is this game set to be a shootout?