As a whole, the Jaguars offense has been a complete mess. They rank at or near the bottom of the nation in most offensive categories: passing (122nd of 130), passing efficiency (127th), total offense (113th) and scoring (123rd). To put that into context, they’ve only averaged 16.8 points and 333.4 total yards, including 140.0 passing yards per contest.
Quarterback Cephus Johnson, a redshirt sophomore, is set to make another start despite completing just 53.6 percent of his passes for three touchdowns and five interceptions so far. Their one bright spot has been senior running back Tra Minter, who has averaged a remarkable 8.0 yards per carry for 432 yards and two scores.
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Overlooking their Week 2 win over FCS Jackson State, South Alabama’s offense has been stifled and limited to six, three and 17 points against Memphis, UAB and Louisiana-Monroe, respectively, in recent weeks. Arguably their best performance of the season came against Nebraska in their season opener, when they fell 35-21 and kept the game competitive throughout.
Georgia Southern has allowed 135.5 rushing yards per game (50th in FBS) including 3.76 yards per carry (48th), which bodes well for their chances of limiting Minter, a necessary component for their success.
It’s safe to say that Georgia State’s triple-option offense didn’t work in Week 1, when they lost 55-3 to then-No. 5 ranked LSU. However, things have been slightly heading in the right direction over the past four weeks when they beat FCS Maine 26-18, suffered a heartbreaking three-point loss to Big Ten opponent Minnesota in Week 3 and then lost 37-24 to Louisiana-Lafayette last time out.
Overall, they rank 129th out of 130 teams in total offense, but that’s due to the skewed nature of their scheme. The triple-option has only netted them 49.8 passing yards per game (2nd lowest in FBS) while they’ve put up a remarkable 201.8 rushing yards per contest. After a two-game absence, quarterback Shai Werts returned to action last week, but Georgia Southern’s running attack has been, and will be, the focus in this one.
For context, a pair of receivers (NaJee Thompson and Malik Murray) lead the team with four catches each through four games while both quarterbacks (Wertz and Justin Tomlin) have gone 19-for-41 passing combined.
Meanwhile, running backs Logan Wright (45 carries for 248 yards, two touchdowns), Matt LaRoche (25 carries for 190 yards, touchdown) and J.D. King (44 carries for 158 yards, touchdown) have seen most of the touches and will continue to do so. Tomlin has rushed 29 times for 193 yards and two scores while Werts has also amassed 86 yards from the quarterback position.
All this is bad news for a South Alabama defense that has allowed 179.0 rushing yards per game (99th in FBS), including 4.57 yards per carry. They haven’t figured out Georgia Southern through their first five meetings, and BetQL’s algorithm suggests that’ll continue.