Free Week 11 NCAA Football Model Bets

Utilizing BetQL's game pages to make the most informed bets possible

Tammy Anthony Baker, Flickr

UConn at Cincinnati

UConn (2-7, 4-5 ATS), Cincinnati (7-1, 5-3 ATS)

Saturday November 9th, 3:30pm EST

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UConn (2-7, 4-5 ATS) is bad. Like, really bad. After somehow throttling UMass 56-35 back on October 26th, they lost 56-10 to Navy on their home field last week. Cincinnati (7-1, 5-3 ATS) are massive -12279 moneyline favorites in this contest and our model still lists that as a ★★ value. To put that into perspective, a bettor needs to wager $12,279 on the Bearcats to win $100. That’s how bad the Huskies are. Under Luke Fickell, Cincinnati is 14-2 versus the moneyline as a favorite and should earn their 15th victory in this one. However, the spread is a completely different story. UConn is listed as a 35-point underdog and there are a couple reasons to bet on them. Under Randy Edsall, UConn is 34-14 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in their previous game. Further, under Fickell, Cincinnati is 0-7 ATS in games after two straight conference wins. Our algorithm lists UConn +35 as a ★★ value and UConn +21 (first half) as a ★★★★ value.

Missouri at No. 6 Georgia

Georgia (7-1, 4-4 ATS), Missouri (5-3, 4-4 ATS)

Saturday November 9th, 7:00pm EST

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Georgia (7-1, 4-4 ATS) is in must-win mode as they look to keep their title hopes alive while Missouri (5-3, 4-4 ATS) will aim to spoil that dream. If it wasn’t for Georgia’s three-point loss to South Carolina back on October 12th, they’d be undefeated with solid wins against Notre Dame and at Florida (last week). Meanwhile, Missouri’s three losses came on the road, at Wyoming, Vanderbilt and Kentucky. They dropped last game at UK by the score of 29-7 and could be in store for major trouble against a powerful Georgia squad this week. While our model labels Mizzou as a ★ value as 16-point underdogs, it also lists Georgia’s -835 moneyline as a ★ value. Further, the algorithm predicts a game script where most of the scoring happens in the first half, as indicated by over the first half 24 point total being listed as a ★★★ value while under the game total of 47.5 being listed as a ★ value. That’s likely due to the ground-and-pound nature of Georgia’s offense, spearheaded by their talented stable of running backs. If Georgia gets out to an early lead, expect them to turn their already run-heavy offense into a clock-killing machine in the second half.

Liberty at BYU

Liberty (6-3, 4-5 ATS), BYU (4-4, 4-4 ATS)

Saturday November 9th, 7:30pm EST

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Liberty (6-3, 4-5 ATS) will face a stiff road opponent when they square off against BYU (4-4, 4-4 ATS) in Week 11. While BYU has beaten some quality teams (USC, Utah State, Boise State) this season, they’ve also fallen short half of the time (against Utah, Washington, Toledo and USF). Nonetheless, the Cougars are 17-point consensus favorites in this battle between FBS Independent schools. Our model labels Liberty +17 as a ★★★ value, BYU’s -850 moneyline as a ★ value, under the 58.5 point total as a ★★★ value and Liberty +9.5 (first half) as a ★★★★ value. Under Kalani Sitake, BYU is 5-1 outright when the total is between 56.5 and 63. (The consensus total is 58.5.) Further, Liberty is 8-1 against the first half spread this season. Therefore, our model favors BYU to earn the win, but for Liberty to keep this game close early and throughout the entirety of the contest.