College Football Win Totals: Illinois Division I Programs

College football win totals for the 2022 season have arrived! This means that we can now bet the over/under on how many wins a certain program will have next year, which is always a fun bet to make. Today we're taking a look at the Division-I programs in the state of Illinois to find out what might be the best bet for the schools in the land of Lincoln. Currently, there are three colleges that qualify as D-I football programs: the Illinois Fighting Illini, the Northwestern Wildcats, and the Northern Illinois Huskies. It will be interesting to see where their win totals sit and examine why they might go over or under.

Yesterday, we looked at the Akron Zips and Vanderbilt Commodores, and we'll continue to look at different schools and states to see where the value lies in the win total projections.

Illinois Fighting Illini, Big Ten - O/U 4.5

As someone who lives in Illinois, and just 50 miles or so from Champaign, I can tell you first-hand how poor the state of the Fighting Illini football program is. Bret Bielema wasn't my first choice as their head coach after firing Lovie Smith, who is now the head coach of the Houston Texans in the NFL, but he's nevertheless a solid option. Playing in the Big Ten is hard, with so many good football programs that are much better than Illinois. While they aren't the worst team in the conference (we'll get to them in a minute) they certainly are bottom-five.

They have a non-conference game against Virginia that I don't think is going to go their way, and it might all come down to whether or not they can beat Nebraska when the schools collide. I'm pretty high on Nebraska this season, and I would be surprised if the Fighting Illini could steal that one, which would help push them towards the over. Sorry, Illinois, but at least your basketball program seems to be in good shape.

Pick: Under 4.5

Northwestern Wildcats, Big Ten - O/U 3.5

This is real pain. While I think that Pat Fitzgerald is a very good coach, and could even coach in the NFL someday as the head man, his team this year is going nowhere fast. Admittedly, it can be very hard to predict Northwestern, as there have been many seasons under Fitzgerald where they looked like they would be a dumpster fire, but turned out to be very competitive somehow. Still, with the team as it is currently constructed, I find it hard to believe that they might win a single conference game. They are simply the worst team in the Big Ten, and unless they can come up with a win against another terrible team in the conference, I don't see them getting to four wins next season, no matter how well Fitzgerald coaches.

Pick: Under 3.5

Northern Illinois Huskies, Mid-American - O/U 6.5

Head coach Thomas Hammock has had a very wild ride during his three seasons as head coach of the Huskies. After a 5-7 record in his first season, they went 0-6 during the COVID year, only to bounce back and go 9-5 last season. They even won the MAC Championship and played in a bowl game against Coastal Carolina, in which they lost In heartbreaking fashion. There is no doubt that the program has been heading in the right direction, especially if you erase that odd COVID year from the record. While they just as easily could have had a 4-8 record last season as they did a 9-5, with many of their games coming down to the wire in close calls, you have to give Hammock and his Huskies the benefit of the doubt being able to pull out wins in close games rather than faltering in those pressure situations. That is the mark of a good team.

This year, 16 starters and 83% of the team’s production from the year before is returning, and they have a pretty easy schedule overall to boot. QB Rocky Lombardi is returning, and he has proven to be a solid option that can get the job done. The offensive line is one of the best units in the conference, and that really helps Lombardi with the time he needs to find the open man. The problem last year was the defense, which was very young. It allowed 36.3 points per game and finished 115th in the nation last season, and that obviously needs improvement if they are going to win again. Now with a year of experience and a championship under their belt, there is reason to believe that improvement is coming.

This conference is bonkers, and you never know what could happen, but they should reach seven wins with their talent level in comparison to others.

Pick: Over 6.5