Big 12 Championship: #9 Baylor vs. #5 Oklahoma State Odds, Best Bets, Prediction

Big 12 Championship Preview

For the first time in seven years, the Big 12 champion won’t be the Oklahoma Sooners. This Saturday’s Big 12 Championship Game will be contested between the Oklahoma State Sooners and the Baylor Bears. The Bears played in this game two years ago while the Cowboys have never played in the Big 12 title game but did win the conference outright in 2011. Oklahoma State, which beat Baylor 24-14 earlier this season, is a 5.5-point favorite at AT&T Stadium on Saturday with the over/under set at 46.5 points.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Preview

This has been a surprising season for the Cowboys, who weren’t even ranked until they got to 4-0 on the season. While they haven’t blown out that many teams, Oklahoma State’s only blemish is a three-point road loss to a good Iowa State. After rallying to beat rival Oklahoma last week, the Cowboys head to the Big 12 Championship Game with just one loss and will have a strong case for the College Football Playoff if they can win the Big 12 Championship Game.

Perhaps the most surprising part of the season is that Oklahoma State’s defense has been the team’s biggest strength. Outside of last week’s shootout against Oklahoma, the Cowboys have held every opponent to 24 points or less, which is almost unthinkable given the program’s track record on that side of the ball. Nevertheless, OSU is giving up 16.4 points per game, which is top-10 nationally. The Cowboys are one of the leaders nationally in sacks, averaging nearly four per game, creating plenty of negative plays while holding three of their last five opponents to three points or less. 

Of course, the Oklahoma State defense has needed to take the lead this year because the offense has been up and down. Quarterback Spencer Sanders is a great athlete who can make plays with his legs, which is why he’s remained the starter this season. However, he’s taken a step backward as a passer this year, as his completion percentage and yards per pass average have both dropped from last season. It’s not like he’s coming on strong late in the season either. However, his mobility has been a great complement for running back Jaylen Warren and has allowed Sanders to take just 12 sacks this season. By running the ball and avoiding negative plays, the Cowboys have put together a functional offense that’s been good enough to win games when combined with a quality defense.

Baylor Bears Preview

Baylor has also had a surprising season after going 2-7 in Dave Aranda’s first season last year. The Bears lost to Oklahoma State early in the season and suffered a two-point defeat against TCU in early November, but that’s it. Baylor beat the likes of Iowa State, BYU, and Oklahoma, so there is no question that the Bears have earned their way to the Big 12 Championship Game.

Unfortunately for Baylor, there is uncertainty over whether or not starting quarterback Gerry Bohanon will play this week. He suffered a hamstring injury two weeks ago during a win over Kansas State and didn’t play in Baylor’s close win over Texas Tech last week. The good news is that the Bears rely mostly on a top-10 rushing attack, as Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner both average more than five yards per carry and combined for over 2,000 yards during the regular season. But Bohanon is also a key part of the rushing attack. He also proved to be a capable passer and a steady but unspectacular presence at quarterback. Freshman Blake Shapen has handled himself well over the last game and a half since Bohanon was hurt. But the Bears won’t want to face one of the best defenses in the country with their backup quarterback.

Of course, even if Bohanon plays, the Bears will still need to lean on their defense. While the Baylor defense isn’t at the same level as the OSU defense, the Bears gave up just 19.4 points per game this season. Only two teams scored more than 24 points against the Bears all season, which is nothing to scoff at given their schedule. The caveat is that the Bears don’t have an elite pass rusher and only amassed a modest 30 sacks during the regular season. The Baylor defense doesn’t necessarily create a ton of negative plays, although the Bears find a way to get stops when they need them.

Big 12 Championship Game Prediction

Given the uncertainty with Bohanon, it’s tough to get behind Baylor in this game. After all, the Cowboys are also the better defensive team, making things even more difficult for the Baylor offense if the Bears have to play their backup quarterback. The only catch is that the OSU offense isn’t that dynamic and won’t create big plays in the passing game to help the Cowboys pull away. However, a strong defense should allow Oklahoma State to keep enough distance from the Bears to win by a comfortable margin.

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