Why BetQL Premium Members Bet On Texas
The Longhorns were one of our Best Bets in Week 1
Louisiana Tech @ Texas
August 31, 2019
Consensus: Texas -19
BetQL Model: Texas -28
BetQL Rating: ★★★★ (Texas -19)
Final Score: 45-14 Texas
Situation Before Kickoff
The Texas Longhorns entered season three of the Tom Herman era as a consensus -19 favorite vs. Louisiana Tech, yet BetQL’s model envisioned a much stronger start for Herman and the ‘Horns and listed Texas as a 28-point favorite that generated a ★★★★ Best Bet rating.
It’s likely that line makers were concerned with Texas’ recent record in season-openers, as the Longhorns fell in each of the previous two seasons. That, paired with a 2018 in which Louisiana Tech went 8-5 with a bowl win, perhaps kept the line a bit lower than where it should have been. However, Texas gradually showed a steady improvement after winning 10 games in 2018, including a bowl win over Georgia. Star quarterback Sam Ehlinger is poised for a huge year and entered the opener with high expectations.
Texas jumped out to a dominant 24-0 lead and it was enough for the Longhorns to cruise to a 45-14 victory and cover the 19-point spread. Ehlinger looked the part, throwing for 276 and four touchdowns with zero interceptions. He connected with promising sophomore wide receiver Brennan Eagles for two scores. With such a sizable lead early, Louisiana Tech was forced to throw the ball 54 times and never could establish anything through their ground game, resulting in a 5-for-14 conversion rate on third downs.
Texas further took advantage of the Bulldogs’ pass-first approach by picking off starter J’Mar Smith once and backup Westin Elliott once as well. Texas did not allow a Louisiana Tech touchdown until the fourth quarter and by that time, the Longhorns held a 38-0 edge. With a lead to work with, the Longhorns were able to pound the ball 30 times for 153 yards which netted 5.1 yards per rush and an ability to maintain possession of the football.
The Longhorns never sweated this one and ran away to a 31-point win, which easily covered the consensus line. It was even good enough to cover the line set by BetQL’s model by a field goal.
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