$ Premium: Back This First-Half Stat in USC vs. Colorado

Premium Betting Angles: USC at Colorado

After suffering its first loss of the season to Oregon last weekend, Colorado has another tall task ahead of it, welcoming USC to town on Saturday. The Trojans are perfect through the first four weeks of the season, thanks in large part to their Heisman-winning quarterback Caleb Williams. This is a high-profile matchup because it involves Colorado and Coach Prime, but USC shouldn't have much of an issue getting an easy win on the road.

The look-ahead line for this game was USC -14.5 but has since ballooned to -21.5. The total opened at 71.5 but money coming in on the over has moved it up to 73.5. Let's dig into this matchup to see how we should best approach it from a betting standpoint. The game will be broadcast on FOX at noon ET at Folsom Field in Boulder, CO.

The BetQL NCAAF model went 83-42 (67%) on all picks rated ⭐⭐⭐⭐ and higher last week for a total return of $1,540 on $100 bets! Subscribe now to gain access to the rest of this article as well as all of BetQL model's insights and picks!

Trojans Will Pile on the Points Early

USC 1H -13.5 (-108, DraftKings)

USC is one of the most explosive teams in college football, which is going to present a massive challenge for the Buffs' defense. The Trojans are averaging 55 points and just under 570 yards of total offense each game. Williams should be able to move the ball at will and I expect USC to put a ton of points on the board, especially early.

USC ranks second to Washington (32.5) in points scored in the first half, averaging 31.5. For as dominant as Colorado's offense has been this year, it's only averaging 11.0 points in the first half. The second half is when Coach Prime's squad really turns it on, averaging 17.8. Neither mark is anything near what USC is averaging (No. 1 with 23.5 2H points), I worry that the Trojans might let us a little late in the second half, similar to what Oregon did. Let's not forget that the Ducks were up 35-0 at the end of the first half last week and they have an offense that's comparable to USC's.

Plus, for as porous as USC's defense was last year, it's been much better this season, only allowing 2.3 red zone scoring attempts per game, which ranks 11th in FBS. It's also clear through the first four weeks, that Colorado doesn't have much of a run game and relies mostly on the arm of Shedeur Sanders. Well, the Trojans have the 24th-best opponent completion percentage (55.47%) this season.

However you want to look at this game, USC has the talent to cover almost every number. By focusing on the first half, we limit the potential for Williams or any of USC's other star players to be watching from the sidelines late in the game.

The Trojans have won the first half by an average margin of 22.25 points this season, so backing them to lead by less than two touchdowns heading into the break seems extremely doable.

MORE: NCAAF PICKS | NCAAF PLAYER PROPS | NCAAF UNDERDOGS