Army Should Run All Over San Jose State
The Black Knights have a huge edge on the ground in this Week 9 matchup
- The Army Black Knights (3-4) host the San Jose State Spartans (3-4) in Week 9.
- Army has gone 2-5 ATS and the over has gone 2-4 in their games while San Jose State is 3-3 ATS and the over has gone 2-5 in their games.
- Last year, on the road, Army beat San Jose State 52-3.
- The Black Knights have averaged 253.6 rushing yards per game (9th out of 130 FBS schools) while the Spartans have allowed 223.7 rushing yards per contest (124th).
Army (3-4) hosts San Jose State (3-4) on Saturday and both teams have struggled lately. The Black Knights are on a three-game losing streak while the Spartans are coming off of a 27-17 loss to San Diego State. In that game, the Spartans controlled the ball for less than a third of the time and were never in control despite the moderately-close final score.
On the surface, a matchup of two 3-4 teams looks pretty even.
However, that’s not the case. As of Thursday morning, Army was a 9-point home favorite and had a -355 moneyline. BetQL’s NCAA Football Model labels Army’s spread and moneyline as the best bets in this matchup.
The reasons for the large spread are simple. Army won this matchup 52-3 last year. This game will be played at West Point. Further, Army has one of the best run offenses in the country while San Jose State has one of the worst run defenses.
Army’s Run Offense Vs. San Jose State’s Run Defense
Army averages 254.6 rushing yards per game, which ranks ninth out of 130 FBS schools. They also have recorded 20 rushing touchdowns, which ranks in the top 10.
On the other hand, San Jose State has allowed 223.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 124th. They’ve given up 4.57 yards per carry and 14 touchdowns on the ground overall. Further, they rank 127th in time of possession (25 minutes), which is another indicator of just how awful their run defense is. (Army ranks 34th in T.O.P.)
Army is the definition of a run-first (run-only) team. They’ve passed the ball 69 times and have rushed it 382 times so far. Seven different runners have recorded double-digit carries while six have recorded 119-plus rushing yards on the season and 10 different players have accounted for the team’s 20 rushing scores. The two leaders are running back Connor Slomka (93 carries for 425 yards, three touchdowns) and quarterback Kelvin Hopkins Jr. (91 carries for 354 yards, five touchdowns). Look for both of them to make an impact in this exploitable matchup.
Sometimes it pays off to not overthink. Army is the clear favorite for a reason in this matchup, should control the game and dominate on the ground. Bet on them despite the large spread.