5 Observations: UCF vs. Pittsburgh

#15 UCF (3-0) at Pittsburgh (1-2)

Saturday, 3:30pm EST

Consensus Total: 61

BetQL Rating: ★★★ OVER

BetQL Model: 64.5

BetQL: UCF (-10.5) ★

1. UCF has been very good against the spread.  

Central Florida is 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games overall, including all three games this season. They are one of just nine FCS schools who are 3-0 against the spread in 2019. 

2. Don’t be afraid to lay the wood.

Not only is UCF good against the spread, they are an exceptional favorite. The Knights have covered six-straight games as a favorite (including all three games this season), eight of nine, and 11 of 13. As a favorite of 20 points or less, Central Florida has covered their last seven and 10 of 11. Oklahoma State and Auburn are the only other programs that have three ATS wins as a favorite this season.

3. The Knights are proven road warriors.

UCF is 5-1 against the spread in their last six road games. Under head coach Josh Heupel, they’re a perfect 5-0 on the road straight up, covering four of those games. When Heupel is a double-digit road favorite, the Knights are a perfect 4-0 against the number.

4. Central Florida is motivated to prove themselves out of conference.

Among the group of five teams, no one fancies themselves as one of the big boys more than Central Florida. They know playing out of conference games, especially against Power 5 schools is how they can elevate the program. The American Athletic Conference school 5-1 against the spread in their last six out-of-conference games. The Knights have also covered five of their past six against Power 5 schools, including a 45-14 win versus Pittsburgh last season.

5. They like playing on grass.

The Knights are 24-9 against the spread in their last 33 games on grass and Josh Heupel is 12-3 coaching UCF on grass. Scott Frost built the foundation of Central Florida’s recent success, but he left for Nebraska last season. Heupel was hired as his successor and led them to their third-straight bowl game in 2018, their sixth in seven years. 

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