TREND: When listed as a favorite, Xavier is 5-10 ATS this season (13-4 SU).
WHY THIS MATTERS: Xavier started off the season with nine-straight wins as a betting favorite, but has gone 4-4 since. They’ve had just two victories against the spread over their last six games as a favorite as well. While St. John’s certainly hasn’t been reliable as an underdog (3-9 SU), they’ve gone 6-5 ATS and defended their home court as a one-point dog against Providence last week, where they enjoyed an 11-point win. This Big East showdown is one of the better games on Monday’s thin slate, but you might have more confidence betting on the moneyline than the spread based on these trends.
TREND: North Carolina has lost six of their last seven games straight-up.
WHY THIS MATTERS: Calling this a “down year” would be a kind way of describing the disastrous Tar Heels campaign. At just 10-15 overall, UNC has gone 9-16 ATS and have been a team to fade throughout the season. Over their last six road losses, they’ve played some tough opponents like Gonzaga and Florida State, but have also squared off against programs like Pittsburgh (14-point loss) and Wake Forest (17-point loss in their most recent contest). Notre Dame still has work to do in order to earn their way into the NCAA Tournament, but they’ve protected their home floor well, going 12-3 so far. Seeing Notre Dame as a betting favorite against North Carolina is weird, but based on the current status of Roy Williams’ squad, it’s warranted.
TREND: Kansas has won their last four home games, but have failed to cover in three of them.
WHY THIS MATTERS: Kansas has gone 12-1 SU at home this season, but has gone 6-7 ATS. Recently, they’ve managed a six-point win over Tennessee, five-point victory over Texas Tech and got past Texas by 11 points, but failed to cover the spread in all three contests. As massive home favorites against Iowa State, their recent conference performances cast a little doubt on if they’ll be able to easily handle their opponents.