Texas Tech at Oklahoma State odds, pick

Monday’s college basketball betting card is centered around the 9 PM game on ESPN when Texas Tech travels to Stillwater to take on Oklahoma State. 

There are sure to be a ton of eyelids on this game with likely No. 1 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft Cade Cunningham leading the Cowboys and Texas Tech inside the top 25. The Red Raiders enter as the betting favorite, but given their recent results, should they be? 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

No. 15 Texas Tech (-3.5, 138) at Oklahoma State - 9 PM EST

The market continues to support Texas Tech, but I don’t see it. The team has not covered the closing spread since January 30th, a wild comeback at LSU in the final minute. After that, January 13th was the last time they cashed ATS. 

I agreed with the opening number of Tech -1, but the line shot up to -3.5 in the overnight market, creating a valuable side in Oklahoma State. 

Tech does have matchup advantages, especially at generating turnovers. The Cowboys are 271st in the nation in turnover rate, while Tech is a top 10 team on the defensive end. 

While Cunningham is going to be the best player on the floor, he has a near 20% turnover percentage himself on a high 28% usage rate. The offense flows through him, and he needs to be better with the ball. 

I expect to see a physical matchup with a ton of fouls throughout. These are two of the top three teams in free throw rate in Big 12 play. Looking deeper, Texas Tech is dead last in sending opponents to the line in conference play, so I see a ton of opportunities for the Pokes to get to the line.

As well, while Texas Tech’s rebounding numbers look great on paper, they have been trending downward in conference games. While Chris Beard’s team has a 34% offensive rebounding percentage, that number has dropped to just 30%in Big 12 games. 

Coming off a road loss Saturday at Kansas -- the Red Raiders allowed 11 offensive rebounds in that one -- and another tough opponent in Oklahoma State Monday, could there be some fatigue on the glass?

It's worth noting Isaac Likekele is a game-time-decision. The Cowboy forward practiced on Friday and reports have been positive he would play. I don't think that calls for such a steam move on Texas Tech, but Likekele is a big part of the team's rotation, playing more than 75% of the available minutes this season.

Either way, I am going to continue fading this overvalued Tech team. It feels that every Big 12 game has gone down to the final possession this season, and getting more than that with a strong home team against a weary visitor is enticing for me. 

Pick: Oklahoma State +3.5, play to +2.5