NCAA Tournament Futures: Baylor Still Worth A Bet In Big 12

The Big 12 is composed of seven Final Four caliber teams. It's a deep conference that is giving bettors nightly headaches trying to figure out which side has value.

Baylor is a cut above the rest in the conference, and next to Gonzaga, they are the best team in the nation.

The other six teams are routinely knocking each other off in a battle for silver in the conference. Here is how it shakes out from different metrics and odds:

*Oklahoma State is currently appealing their NCAA Tournament ban and does not have title odds listed

Between KenPom’s rankings, our friend Lukas Harkins' February 23 bracketology update, and DraftKings National Champion odds, everyone is split up on how they rank the conference.

Let’s dive in deeper on a few teams:

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Baylor

The hype around Baylor real. After being a Final Four contender last year, the Bears brought back the entire team and have been destroying everyone in their way.

The team is paced by the backcourt of Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell, but the team has scoring threats all over. In addition to the aforementioned two guards, three other rotation players are shooting over 34% from beyond the arc.

Also, Scott Drew’s team forces the most turnovers in conference play. This team rarely misses and erases a ton of opponent’s possessions. It’s nearly impossible to keep pace with them.

The club has won 16 of their 18 games by double-digits this season. It may appear that the price is too short on Baylor a +250, but this team is going to be playing deep into March, and likely blowing out teams in their way.

A Baylor-Gonzaga National Championship is the most likely scenario and getting + money on the Bears to win it all is not a bad idea.

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West Virginia

The Mountaineers, as of this writing, are the second best team in the conference. The team has transformed after big man Oscar Tshiebwe left the program earlier in the year, focusing on three-point shots and trips to the free throw line.

West Virginia is running red-hot from deep in Big 12 play, shooting 40.9% from beyond the arc, and posting a 42% free throw rate.

However, this is not the ‘Press Virginia’ of old. The defense has slipped throughout the year, currently 66th in KenPom’s defensive metric and outside the top 100 in turnover rate.

I am a bit concerned about West Virginia’s ability to make a deep run in the tournament with their need to get hot from three. The team has the worst two-point and free throw percentage in conference play, but there is no denying that it has shown moxy the past two months.

West Va has erased second half deficits to Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Texas in Big 12 play, a sign of confidence.

Another positive indicator is that they will be the only team in the nation to face both Gonzaga (lost by five) and Baylor (play Tuesday March 2) ahead of the NCAA Tournament. That type of experience can pay dividends come March.

Kansas

Kansas intrigues me. Yes, the team squandered a double-digit lead on the road to Texas Tuesday night, but the pieces are starting to fall into place for the Jayhawks.

Before that loss, the team compiled five straight victories with two notable ones over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech.

It is a concern that the team is not very deep, outside the top 300 in KenPom’s bench minutes metric, but Bill Self’s team is ninth in the nation in defense. Just outside the top-100 in opponent turnover rate and defensive rebounding percentage, the Jayhawks are able to get timely stops.

On the offensive end, it’s still a work in progress, but I see it starting to come together. Ochai Agbaji has become a reliable three-point threat, up to 37% from beyond the arc after shooting 31% last season.

As well, I am bullish on Jalen Wilson and his growth throughout the year. Playing stretch four with the Jayhawks, he is posting the third best defensive rebounding rate in Big 12 play now that he's become acclimated to the college game.

Ultimately, for the Jayhawks to make a run it will fall on David McCormack. The big man is reliable at the line, 80% for a true big man is impressive, but isn’t super efficient elsewhere, shooting 48% on two-point shots.

Kansas needs to be able to dump it into McCormack for easy buckets over the course of the game.

I’m not sure if the Jayhawk offense can get it done for a deep March run, but the odds of a Final Four berth at +500 are intriguing. Kansas has one game left on the schedule -- a home game against Baylor Saturday -- before the Big 12 tournament. If the team is able to stay on the four line, or move up, they can be in position to make it as far as the Elite Eight, opening doors to hedge out of a +500 ticket.

This could be the time to buy on KU.

Further Reading: Why Oklahoma is a smart future to add