Ken Barkley: College Basketball Overnight Bets for Wednesday January 20, 2021

Taking a look at Wednesday's best college basketball values

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We had a lot of success last night with "Overnights," even before we get results, because I was correct in predicting that we would be getting the best of the number in all 3 cases. Whether it was Miami, Illinois (which went pretty crazy) or the under in Ohio State, I think we made valuable bets in all three cases. I'm not sure if any will win, but that's the goal of this column when I write it during the week. 

And you might be sitting there wondering "well, is CLV everything?" with CLV meaning closing-line value, also described as the difference between the number you bet and the closing number in the market. The good news for you, the consumer, is that even if you believe it is NOT everything, that there is more to sound handicapping then getting the best of the number, there are still ways to use this information to your advantage. 

For one, it's another opinion and piece of information to use in your process. It can intersect in a shallow manner with your own methods and I promise I won't be offended. But it also is generally a very strong predictor of which way the market is going to move. So let's say you like the opposite side of a game I'm discussing, for whatever reason. Well, now you can feel more confident waiting, because a better number may appear and you can bet that closer to gametime. 

Lastly, if I think a number is way off, you could try to create valuable middles (something like Illinois -7.5 -110 last night and Penn State +10 today, which were both available during the last 24 hours. Again, it's all how you want to use the information, but it's just information. Hopefully you find it valuable. These are the bets I am choosing to make.

That was a little longer than usual, but I also have less to write for each game, so welcome to a shorter set of facts and figures for valuable bets on Wednesday:

Note: I'm off tomorrow so this is the last Overnights article for this week.

Western Carolina (+2) vs East Tennessee State

I make Western Carolina a small favorite in the game. I think this is good down to pick. 

Kentucky-Georgia over 144.5

My largest total disparity of any game. I'm in the low 150's and a lot of that is being driven by Georgia's higher-than-usual rated offense and atrociously-rated defense in my private ratings that I keep (very mysterious, I know, but think KenPom offensive and defensive efficiency, and you're not far off). This is playable up at least another 2 points in my opinion.

Wake Forest-UNC over 141

Two blue-blood overs! Wow.  Seems unlikely I'd have that series of bets on any day, since these are teams people like betting on, and totals people generally play over (mostly because the public plays overs in about every single college basketball game ever). But probably as a result of how each team has underperformed so far this season, their overs have actually become appealing. I make this about 145.8, so I'd definitely play this over 141 and 141.5, and 142 is probably a half-unit. 

With both UNC and Kentucky, it will be interesting how quickly they morph into better, more dangerous teams as we go through January and February and their freshmen mature. It will then be interesting how quickly the market adjusts to those changes, and how quickly I can change my ratings confidently. For right now, just the over in their games, but two fascinating teams to watch down the stretch.

Listen to Ken Barkley Monday-Friday on You Better You Bet and follow him on Twitter @LockyLockerson.