Ken Barkley: College Basketball Overnight Bets for Thursday January 14, 2021
Taking a look at Thursday's best college basketball values
We conclude another week of the written content for "Overnights" with a relatively busy Thursday. Tuesday, it was the blue bloods in action. Wednesday, it was the stinky totals, like St. Bonaventure-Fordham, a game we suffered an excruciating beat on. That was a game I hope you didn't watch. Thursday, the Pac-12 is back in action as well as several other conferences.
Let's go through some of the edges that stand out:
There are lots of bad times to play Sean Miller Arizona teams historically. Large favorite. Anything at home (where they're the worst in the Pac-12 ATS since he's been there, or close to it). Arizona is generally a public team when they play conference games, and I often find that I don't have edges on them in many spots. This isn't one of those situations, and I actually think we have a rare time where Arizona presents value.
My number in this game is Arizona -9. I think -6.5 and -7 are both bets against the Beavers. You also get Arizona off consecutive losses (something that doesn't happen frequently), so if there was ever a "buy" point on a team like this, you would assume this would be the game.
A game that opened +9 and is already moving down, which it should. My number is Montana State -5.9, so +8 is still a bet and +7.5 is about a half-unit in this case.
My number is about 146 in this game. We have a lot of data on each team, so I think the coast is clear to play the over. This is good up at least another 2-2.5 points to 142.5. Totals have been extremely successful for me so far this season, modifying my approach from last year, and I hope that continues as "overnights" gets deeper into the season.