Hershkovich: Saturday's College Basketball Betting Preview for January 16
Two top plays for Saturday's CBB card
With 17 ranked teams in action tomorrow, we’ve got another loaded college basketball slate. I’d normally bet No. 15 Texas Tech against No. 2 Baylor, but there’s not much value (+4.5) after the Red Raiders upset No. 4 Texas on Wednesday.
There are a pair of plays I’m looking to grab on tomorrow’s college basketball slate, so let’s break them down.
Auburn (-1.5) vs. Kentucky; O/U 143
Who said I don’t bet favorites? While the Tigers are coming off an 18-point win at Georgia, this is still a buy-low spot for Bruce Pearl’s team, racking up four straight losses before that.
The betting market hasn’t adjusted enough to five-star freshman Sharife Cooper finally suiting up for Auburn after missing the first 11 games of the season because of eligibility issues. The Tigers have top-half of the SEC potential with Cooper in the lineup, and look for him and his teammates to speed up the Wildcats’ defense in transition. Kentucky showed plenty of flaws in that area in a blowout loss to Alabama on Tuesday.
The Wildcats’ turnover-prone offense should lead to those opportunities -- with the Tigers tallying a top-130 opponents’ turnover percentage (20.6%).
On top of that, John Calipari’s bunch doesn’t have a defensive stopper to match up against Allen Flanigan, who’s quietly developing into one of the better wings in the SEC. Expect his athleticism to give Kentucky issues, representing a ball-handling wing that can space the floor (39.1%).
The Pick: Auburn -1
Louisville (-4) @ Miami (Fla.); O/U 132
This game represents a sell-high spot for the Cardinals, but there are a couple question marks surrounding the Hurricanes.
Miami guards Chris Lykes (ankle) and Kameron McGusty’s (hamstring) status is unknown, and Jim Larranaga’s squad needs at least one to keep pace with Louisville. The ‘Canes are one of the unluckiest teams in college basketball, according to KenPom’s luck factor, and it’s partially because of three one-possession losses in ACC play without either Lykes or McGusty in the lineup.
If Lykes goes, his ability to dominate in transition and keep the Cardinals’ defense honest from behind the arc will be critical. Keep an eye on his and McGusty’s status throughout the day.
At the other end, Miami’s size advantage and elite interior defense should play a key role versus Louisville, as Chris Mack’s team boasts the 68th-highest 2-point scoring rate in the country. With big man Nysier Brooks leading the way, look for the Hurricanes to control the glass.
The Pick: Miami ATS, depending on Lykes and/or McGusty
