Over the last two seasons, Northern Illinois has gone 0-6 ATS against up-tempo teams that take at least 62 FG attempts per game. Unfortunately for NIU, Bowling Green has averaged 67.0 FG attempts per game this season (second among 358 Division-I schools), including 69.3 over their last three games. To highlight what a drastic pace-up spot this is for Northern Illinois, they average only 52.8 field goal attempts per game (341st). BetQL is listing this as a five-star bet and the model is projecting the visitors to win by double-digits. I think Bowling Green is going to take NIU completely out of their comfort zone and cruise to an easy win.
Duke is 8-4 ATS this season and 2-1 ATS as the road team. They’re also 7-4 ATS as the favorite. And Mike Krzyzewski is 160-118 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more while coaching Duke, and 73-51 ATS after two straight games where they made 50 percent of their shots or better while coaching Duke. Also, Leonard Hamilton is just 4-17 ATS after two straight wins by six points or less while coaching Florida State, so I’m thinking Duke can cover this spread against Florida State tonight.
Don't think this is an automatic under just because South Florida is 4-12 O/U this season. The Bulls are actually 4-2 O/U in their last six as oddsmakers have suppressed their totals after 10 straight unders to start the season. Houston has also gone over in three of the last four, with one of those being an 83-66 win at South Florida that sailed way over the 121.5 total. I'm not expecting as many points this time around, but these two have proved they can go over such a small number.
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