This Duke-North Carolina Trend Will Shock You!

The Tar Heels have been absolutely embarrassing at home against the spread

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#7 Duke (19-3) at North Carolina (10-12)

Saturday 2/8/20, 6:00pm EST


TREND: The Tar Heels are 2-10 ATS at home this season.

STORYLINE: “Despite starting the season 5-0, North Carolina’s offense was held to under 80 points in each of its first 10 games for the first time since 1949. Over an 11-day span, the Tar Heels suffered the most lopsided loss in Williams’ tenure and lost to Wofford. Last month, it dropped home tilts against Pittsburgh and Clemson, the latter of which had never beaten UNC in Chapel Hill. En route to a Sweet 16 appearance last season, UNC went 16-2 in conference play and earned a share of the regular-season ACC title. This season, the Tar Heels set a program record by dropping six consecutive games in conference play. A head coach can typically point to a specific area or two holding his team back. There are perhaps too many for Williams to count. ‘I don’t think you get to know the identity of your team until you start playing games and having some adversity,’ Williams said during preseason media day. ‘I think it will be a running team and I think it will be a good defensive team.’ A few months later, Williams has a team that’s his slowest in four years by adjusted tempo, and one that’s tracking to be the worst offense and defense he’s ever coached. Traditionally, offense hasn’t been hard to come by for Williams, whose teams nearly always ransack the glass. That style hasn’t changed this season, as the team ranks No. 21 in offensive rebounding percentage, but while the team finished each of the past five seasons ranked in the top 11 of KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, this season it ranks 128th. Perhaps that’s because Williams is watching his team build a house of bricks nearly every night. Compared with other Williams-led offenses, this one is on pace to set new lows in 2-point field-goal percentage, 3-point field-goal percentage and effective field-goal percentage.” - Josh Planos, FiveThirtyEight (2/6/20)

QUICK-HITTER: It’s safe to say that UNC’s struggles have been one of the most shocking storylines in college hoops this season. However, as seen many times in this rivalry, records should be thrown out the window in what will be a raucous atmosphere. Click the button below to access our model’s best bet!