Both Big South Frontrunners Have Cinderella Qualities

Part of the fun of the NCAA Tournament is trying to identify the teams from small conferences that will be the next Cinderella story. If your Cinderella prediction is accurate, you’ll look like a genius and keep your bracket intact longer than everyone else. This year, one conference to watch closely is the Big South. Traditionally, this league has little success in the Big Dance. The only NCAA Tournament win in league history outside of a play-in game between two No. 16 seeds came in 2007 when 11-seed Winthrop upset Notre Dame. Other than that, the Big South has been winless in the Round of 64. However, both Radford and Winthrop and possible Cinderellas worth watching this year, assuming one of them ends up winning the Big South Tournament.

• BetQL's NCAA Basketball Model has gone 93-53 (63.7%) across all Big South bets this season.

• Don’t sleep on the Big South in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

• Winthrop is 12-3 against the spread in road games and 7-0 ATS as an underdog. 

• Winthrop also scores over 80 points per game and has size to compete on boards with power-conference teams.

• Radford have won nine in a row and feature Big South Player of the Year frontrunner Carlik Jones.

Winthrop

The Winthrop Eagles are a program that’s accustomed to being at the top of the Big South standings. Since 1999, they’ve represented the Big South in the tournament 10 times and they are once again one of the top teams in the league, battling it out with Radford for the regular-season title. In addition to being 19-10 overall and 13-3 in conference play, the Eagles are 12-3 against the spread in road games, including 7-0 ATS as an underdog. That includes a late-November loss to Duke in which the Eagles refused to go down easily. A team’s play on the road is usually a good indicator of how they’ll fare in neutral-site games during the tournament, so Winthrop overachieving as a road underdog is a sign that they’re undervalued.

On the court, the Eagles are dynamic offensively, ranking 16th nationally in points with 80.4 per game and 27th in assists with 16 per game. There is no standout scorer with Hunter Hale and D.J. Burns leading the way with 12.8 and 12.5 points per game, respectively. But that means they are balanced offensively and not overly reliant on one player. Winthrop is also a strong rebounding team with four players in their rotation who stand 6’7’’ or taller, giving them a chance to match up against power-conference teams.

Radford

Meanwhile, the Radford Highlanders are one of the hottest teams in the country as the calendar gets set to flip to March. On the heels of nine straight wins, they are 19-9 overall and 14-2 in conference play, giving them a one-game lead over Winthrop atop the standings. If the Highlanders can win the regular-season title, they would get home-court advantage in the conference tournament.

While Radford doesn’t have the same balance as Winthrop, they have arguably the best player in the Big South in Carlik Jones. The junior point guard is averaging 19.7 points, 5.5 assists and 5.0 rebounds per game. He and Radford’s second-leading scorer Travis Fields Jr. both shoot over 40% from the perimeter with Donald Hicks providing the Highlanders with a third outside shooter. If at least two of them get hot from the outside, Radford can be a handful for any team and become capable of pulling off an upset.

Looking Ahead 

Historically, the Big South has been a conference that could be easily ignored in March. However, this year could be different. The league has two teams that have dominated the rest of the league this season. Both Winthrop and Radford have qualities that can make them a dangerous underdog in the NCAA Tournament. Assuming one of them ends up winning the Big South Tournament, either the Eagles or Highlanders will be a potential Cinderella.