What Bettors Need To Realize About The Jazz
Utah continues to let bettors down in key spots against the spread
- Despite the Utah Jazz’s 41-23 record this season, there are many underlying trends that reflect poorly against the spread.
- The Jazz are 29-32 ATS this season, and are just 12-16 ATS as a home favorite.
- Overall, Utah has been an untrustworthy team for bettors to back this season, and that’s a concern that will continue.
- Wednesday’s matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder will be difficult, considering Oklahoma City has the best overall ATS record in the NBA at 39-24, covering at a 61.9% clip.
EXAMINING THE NUMBERS
On the outside looking in, it would appear the Utah Jazz are in the midst of another strong season in the grind-it-out Western Conference. They’re currently the fourth seed, only two games behind their division rival Denver Nuggets, and only two and a half games behind the LA Clippers, who are one of the NBA Championship favorites this season (+325 currently at DraftKings Sportsbook, third-highest odds).
But if we examine the Jazz a bit closer, there are a wide variety of trends that are concerning not just for Utah fans, but also for bettors ready to back the Jazz down the stretch of the regular season.
For starters, Utah is in the middle of the pack in their overall record against the spread: 29-32 for a cover percentage of 47.5%. They also have failed to show any sort of dominance at home vs the spread in 2019-2020: going just 13-16 ATS at home, with only one of those games as an underdog this season (12-16 ATS as a home favorite). Even when they have a rest advantage over their opponent, Utah has gone 6-11 ATS for a cover percentage of just 35.3%.
Lastly, the Jazz are not winning games they need to win, particularly in divisional and conference play. Straight-up on the season, the Jazz are 5-5 in the division and 21-16 in conference. That would rank them 8th and 7th, respectively, amongst teams in the Western Conference this year. Against the spread, the numbers are even worse: 3-7 in the division and 14-22 in conference.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT OKC
Heading into a highly contested divisional matchup on the road against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Jazz will have their work cut out for them for both themselves and the betting public. Utah currently finds themselves a game up on Oklahoma City in the Northwest Division of the Western Conference, but The Thunder own the league’s best record ATS this year, going 39-24 with a 61.9% cover percentage. OKC has won their last three games straight-up and are 17-5 straight-up in their last 22 games.
Even more impressive, is that the Thunder still own the league’s best ATS record despite a recent five-game losing streak ATS from February 25th through March 4th. Finally, if the game is close late in the 4th quarter, the Thunder have won 29 of their 40 games this season when the margin is five points or less in the final five minutes. (This can be an immensely useful stat to consider if you plan to live bet the game.)
Bettors looking for positive trends for the Jazz have found them in two areas this season: underdogs and non-conference games. Utah has gone 8-5 as a dog this season, covering 61.5% of the time. They’ve also covered 61.5% of the time in non-conference games this year. Ultimately, through 66 games, the Jazz have shown themselves to be untrustworthy for bettors, particularly in games that matter most for playoff seeding down the stretch.
To unlock our model’s best bets for this game (and every contest on today’s slate), click the button below!