Why The Wizards Actually Have A Chance To Make The NBA Playoffs

• The Washington Wizards (24-40) have the worst record of all the NBA teams invited to complete the final eight games of the regular-season in Orlando. Washington trails both the Brooklyn Nets and Orlando Magic for one of the final two seeds in the Eastern Conference and has +900 odds to make the playoffs, per DraftKings Sportsbook.

• The Wizards can force a play-in tournament with the Magic or the Nets just by finishing within four games of the eighth seed. The Wizards should be able to stay close enough to the Magic to force a play-in tournament given Orlando’s struggles this season against teams with a win percentage of .500 or better.

• In a play-in tournament against either the Nets or the Magic, the Wizards would have a fighting chance. Assuming that Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant do not play for Brooklyn this season, Washington would have the best player in the tournament in shooting guard Bradley Beal. The Wizards star ranked second in the league in points per game and ranked inside the top-20 in terms of player efficiency rating before the suspension of the season.

• The four-month layoff should favor a team that is competent offensively and that plays with pace. The Wizards maintained an above-average offensive efficiency rating and ranked in the top-five in terms of pace at the time of the season’s suspension.

• Washington having a chance to make the playoffs says more about the weakness of the Nets and Magic than the strength of the Wizards. Some reports have indicated that former all-star John Wall is healthy enough to suit up for the Wizards.

Modified Playoff Rules

The rules that will govern the remainder of the 2019-2020 NBA season have opened the door for the Wizards to make the postseason in the Eastern Conference. The Wizards only need to finish within four games of the Magic or Nets to force one of those two teams into a play-in tournament for the final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

At the time of the season’s suspension, the Magic held the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference with a record of 30-35, which was better than the Wizards’ record of 24-40; however, the Magic built their record from beating up on teams with winning percentages below .500. Orlando was 25-9 against teams with a losing record, but 5-26 against teams with a winning percentage of .500 or higher. The Magic will not have too many opportunities to face teams with a winning percentage of less than .500 in the final eight regular-season games because the worst teams from the Eastern Conference were not invited to finish the season. The Wizards should be able to win enough games to push the Magic into a play-in tournament.

Bradley Beal's Offensive Prowess

In a play-in tournament, the Wizards would have a real chance to upset either the Nets or Magic. Since Irving and Durant are not expected to return to the Nets for the remainder of the season, Beal would easily be the best player on the court. Beal was having the best season of his career before the season’s suspension, averaging over 30 points per game, second in the league behind only James Harden. No healthy player on either the Magic or Nets is among the top-20 players in scoring per game. Beal held one of the 20-best player efficiency ratings in the league. No healthy player on either the Magic or Nets is among the top-20 players in player efficiency rating.

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Offense and Pace Are Factors

Many teams may be sluggish coming back from a four month layoff without any competitive basketball. Team defense is what may struggle the most once the season tips off again in late-July. The Wizards should benefit from the layoff because they are a competent offensive unit that plays with pace. Washington ranked fifth in pace, sixth in points per game, and 13th in offensive rating. By contrast, the Nets ranked 18th in points per game and 22nd in offensive rating, while the Magic ranked 27th in points per game, 24th in offensive rating, and 26th in pace. The Wizards had the league’s worst defensive rating, but offensive efficiency will be more vital for team success following the long layoff.

Looking Ahead

The Wizards are not a good team under any stretch of the imagination. Washington having a legitimate chance at making the playoffs is more of an indictment on the Magic and Nets than it is an endorsement of the Wizards. As an underdog pick to make the Eastern Conference playoffs at +900 odds, the Wizards do provide bettors with plenty of value. Reports that former All-Star John Wall has recovered sufficiently from a ruptured Achilles tendon (one that has sidelined him since December of 2018) to play the remainder of this season is a promising development for the Wizards’ playoff chances.

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