On Tuesday night, the Phoenix Suns (17-3, 11-9 ATS) will host the Golden State Warriors (18-2, 15-4 ATS) in an incredible Western Conference matchup between arguably the NBA's two best teams. The Suns are riding a 16-game win streak while the Warriors have won and covered in seven consecutive games!
Phoenix opened as -2.5 favorites, but CLICK HERE to see live odds and best bets. Our model is giving one team a 72.5% chance to win this game outright!
The BetQL Model has gone 116-84 (58%) on Warriors O/U bets all-time for a total return of $2,154 on $100 bets. The model has also gone 108-90 (54.6%) on Suns spread bets and 60-44 (57.7%) on Suns 1st half spread bets for a total return of $1,889 on $100 bets. Subscribe to the model for just $4.99 to see every best bet for this game and the entire NBA slate!
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Stephen Curry leads the Warriors with a 30.3% usage rate followed by Jordan Poole (25.4%) and Andrew Wiggins (24.8%). Curry is performing at an MVP level and is now averaging 28.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 6.8 assists over 34.2 minutes while Wiggins (19.0 points, 4.6 rebounds in 30.2 minutes) and Poole (18.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists in 30.2 minutes) have chipped in admirably. Chef Curry broke his own all-time three-pointer record (105 threes in 19 games, fastest to 100 ever) last time out and is shooting an absurd 42.3% from deep this season (making an average of 5.5 threes on 13.1 attempts on average).
Devin Booker leads the Suns with a 30.9% usage rate followed by Chris Paul (20.0%) and DeAndre Ayton (19.7%). Booker is averaging 23.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.7 assists over 33.1 minutes while Paul is putting up a double-double with 14.5 points and 10.1 assists over 31.9 minutes and Ayton is also averaging a double-double with 15.4 points and 11.5 rebounds in 30.1 minutes. Both teams have star power, but also have quality depth around them who play their roles extremely well. This is a pretty even matchup overall.
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Both of these teams are elite offensively. In fact, they rank 2nd (Golden State, 114.0) and 3rd (Phoenix, 112.6), respectively in points scored per game. Unsurprisingly, the Warriors rank 1st in assists per game (29.3) while the Suns rank 4th in that regard (26.3). Golden State ranks 28th in turnovers per game (16.1), but leads the NBA in steals per game (10.1) to offset that deficiency.
The way that these two teams score is very different, however. A whopping 39.9% of Golden State’s points have come from beyond the arc (most in NBA) while just 30.4% of Phoenix’s points have (4th-fewest). So, while both of these teams rank in the top six in pace, they have gotten the job done in different ways and cater to their own strengths.
Something that sets the Warriors apart, though, is their Net Rating of +13.6, which measures the difference between Offensive Rating (the higher the better) and Defensive Rating (the lower the better). They lead the NBA by a massive margin and the Suns rank third at +7.1. For context, the last team to finish double digits in the positive in Net Rating was the Warriors in 2016-2017 (+11.4) and the all-time best since this started getting tracked was the Chicago Bulls in 1996-1997 (+11.8).
Considering that the Warriors are performing at this level without Klay Thompson and James Wiseman, they’re an extremely scary team while the Suns have clearly taken the momentum from last year’s Finals run into this season.
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