Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Clippers Game 5 Odds, Betting Trends and Picks

Best bet for this pivotal Game 5

Vikas Chokshi - Jun 16, 2021, 4:02pm EDT

BetQL Model Trends and Plays:

Utah Jazz are 17 - 5 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game while at home this season
Utah Jazz are 28 - 14 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season
Projected score: Jazz 113 - Clippers 105

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* These are the model's ratings at the time the article was published. Star ratings can change due to line changes, injuries, and other breaking information.

Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz (-7, 221.5) - 10 PM EST

The Clippers played great in Games 3 and 4. Paul George and Leonard stepped up on both sides of the basketball and everyone else chipped in to win those two games. Tyronn Lue also made all the right moves with his small ball lineup and adjustments. But, just when it looked like the Clippers were in the drivers seat to win the series, disappointment sets in. Now with Kawhi out, Los Angeles will need to rely heavily on PG to carry the load offensively.

George has played well this series, averaging 27.3 points, 8 rebounds, and 4.3 assists a game. Can he take his game to the next level and live up to his self-anointed nickname, "Playoff P"?

More importantly, someone else will need to step up and help George offensively. Reggie Jackson or Marcus Morris come to mind. The team should be slightly used to Kawhi being out due to his load management rest days. On the flip side, he's still one of the best players in the world and the playoffs are a different ballgame. Los Angeles has a talented roster, so it will be interesting to watch who steps up tonight.

Overall, LA's small ball lineup has given Utah issues throughout this series on both sides, so I'd look for more of that tonight. Defensively, they slowed down Utah in Games 3 and 4 as a whole holding them to 106 and 104 points. That was a combination of playing more physical and an expected shooting regression from the Jazz.

With that all being said, this is a completely series moving forward without one of the best players in the world.

The Jazz go as Donovan Mitchell goes, and he’s been going alright. Despite hurting himself a couple of times this series, Spida has been on fire on offense. The Jazz guard is putting up 37.3 PPG this series. He’s hitting 5.8 3s per game and shooting a scorching 46.4% from deep. Los Angeles has no answer for him, and it just got a lot worse with Leonard out.

Utah is still waiting for the return of Mike Conley, which would be a huge boost for the team as a whole. Especially with Mitchell hobbling.

Either way, the Jazz will have a lot easier time both scoring and defending the Clippers with Leonard out tonight. Being at home helps that even more. Utah will feed off of their fan base's energy.

Game 4 played out exactly how I thought it would, with the under hitting. I'm going back to the well here for my best bet. The line has gotten too high for me to play Utah here, but I can see another grinder of a game scoring wise.

While the public envisions another high scoring affair, I'm going a little contrarian. These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Utah ranks 3rd in points allowed, while Los Angeles ranks 4th. Both teams also play at a slower tempo and we should see the shooting regression continue.

Los Angeles averages 109.7 points with Leonard, compared to 115.7 with him. I just can't see an offensive explosion from anyone on the Clippers in this spot. If the game is a blowout, the game script should help the under as well.

The BetQL model also has a 3-star pick on the under. That and the public being on the over, makes me feel better about this play.

Pick: Under 221.5